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Douglas Fraser | 20:38 UK time, Friday, 11 December 2009

When Mervyn King pronounces, we and the markets listen with due reverence. But we lack such a dignified guv'nor at the pinnacle of the Scottish financial system.

The closest we get is either going to be Professor Brian Ashcroft, of the Fraser of Allander Institute, or Dr Andrew Goudie, chief economic adviser to the Scottish Government.

Doc Goudie has just published his latest quarterly ponderings upon the state of the world, UK and Scottish economy, which I can recommend as a relatively accessible journey through the most recent indicators at those three levels.

Being a civil servant, he's much too cautious to offer his own projections of Scotland's economic prospects. And he urges a lot of caution on those who have, and who suggest Scotland is recovering more sluggishly than the rest of the UK, including the Ernst and Young Scottish ITEM Club, and Fraser of Allander.

Though a lot of this is about caution and the raising of questions, it's worth a look at what he highlights - not least because it's probably what he wants to highlight when he's advising Messrs Salmond and Swinney.

The imminent arrival of much more volatile inflation, for instance, pointing out volatility can be a big problem just as sustained high inflation can be. Rising fuel prices, higher import prices and the return of 17.5% VAT should all give the indices a bit of a kick at the start of the new year.

And what about the toxic debt that the IMF thinks is still lurking on banks' balance sheets?

His analysis stresses that this is not just a recession, from which we'll bounce back, but it's probably "a fundamental repositioning of individual economies within the global economy, and some sectors within these economies".

Does that mean, Goudie pointedly asks, that Scotland should re-orientate itself even more strongly towards the Asian economies that appear to be recovering best?

How should it re-assess where it's comparative advantages lie? He mentions energy and life sciences, but doesn't offer much more of an answer to that question.

This is the strongest message from the economic adviser: "Looking to new trading partners and markets which will lead recovery will be important as we seek to identify future drivers of growth".

He goes on: "It raises the question of whether the Scottish economy needs to reposition in order to seize the opportunities created by adjustment. This involves ensuring that Scottish exporters can benefit from the re-shaping of demand in the global economy, which may involve targeting new markets, particularly in East Asia.

"But more broadly, an assessment needs to be undertaken as to what implications any rebalancing may mean for Scotland's comparative advantages. Ultimately, these comparative advantages will determine the extent to which the Scottish economy will compete within the global economy in the coming years.

"There may also be implications for the future structure of the Scottish economy. Over the past 30 years, (its) structure has shifted towards greater focus on the service sector. If the re-balancing of the global economy involves western economies exporting more goods and services to east Asian countries, then we may witness future growth in export-oriented industries".

With the UK Government moving more swiftly than similar countries to repair the damage to its public finances, Dr Goudie also suggests: "This will have implications on the future performance of the UK economy relative to other countries which have a more supportive fiscal stance" - music to the ears of his political masters in St Andrew's House.

The next week will give us more of an idea how the Scottish economy's performing: the latest Purchasing Managers Index on Monday and the latest unemployment data on Wednesday.

  • One industry already doing rather well at pushing into those east Asian markets is, of course, whisky. Forget, if you will, the threat of an English whisky being put on the market this week, for the first time in 100 years.

    The battle to break down trade barriers is now pushing on to Manila. The European Commission announced today that it's pushing to a new stage in World Trade Organisation procedures in its challenge to the Philippine government's import duty on alcohol spirits.

    Meanwhile, Scotland's other global giant has had a strange bit of good news from Brussels: approval for its joint takeover of an American company. Could this be part of the consolidation of the finance industry, when it's supposed to be shedding assets?

    No, it looks more like the unravelling of its deeply troubled loan book. This is the takeover, alongside Deutsche Bank, of a company called Spin HoldCo. It's the parent company of Coinmach Service Corporation, which supplies laundry services equipment to apartment blocks, universities and the US military.

    It's surely time for a new laundrette/laundromat to be installed at RBS's Gogarburn headquarters.

  • Comments

    • Comment number 1.

      The First Minister decided a couple of years ago to augment the official sources of economic advice. Hence he established the Council of Economic Advisers to advise him how to increase sustainable economic growth in Scotland.

      But whether the expert advice will be enacted is another matter. For example the Council highlighted serious impediments to growth such as the reluctance of the public sector to help deliver innovation for the benefit of Scotland.

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