´óÏó´«Ã½

´óÏó´«Ã½ BLOGS - Douglas Fraser's Ledger
« Previous | Main | Next »

Economic resolutions

Douglas Fraser | 11:00 UK time, Friday, 1 January 2010

This time last year, you probably hadn't heard of quantitative easing and Sir Fred Goodwin's pension? - well, that was personal to him, wasn't it?

So what will we have learned about the way of the world's economy by this time next year?

The crystal ball - heavily discounted in a pre-Christmas sale - says the world will be back to growth - some bits faster than others.

In China, it may already be back to growing far too fast, creating new imbalances and instability. International tensions with Beijing look a safe bet, particularly over its currency.

You could also expect problems with growth driving inflation. Energy prices could lead a year of renewed volatility.

Some bits of the world economy will be lucky to grow at all. Ireland, for instance. And Scotland's growth prospects are slim.

Forecasters say a modest lift for Scottish growth early in the new year could be followed by another dip by year's end, with unemployment still troubling and some companies buckling under prolonged corporate stress.

That pattern has held for previous such slumps.

But then, we haven't really had such slumps before. This has been unique, in its severity a year ago, and in the steps taken to avoid a depression.

That avoidance has been a job well done, so far.

The next test is to exit the so-called Great Stabilisation with a not-so-great reckoning: unwinding the boost to money supply, lifting interest rates off the floor and cutting those deficits.

The Bank of England will have to turn off the new money taps. February looks good timing for that.

But as the UK economy stumbles back to growth, the central bank must pick the right time for reining in monetary policy to choke inflationary pressures.

At the heart of the Westminster election campaign is public spending.

We know there's going to be pain, but lots of people seem to think it can be applied to someone else, whether it's bashing a banker or having a bonfire of the bureaucrats.

Whatever gets said before the election and whoever wins, the subsequent occupant of 11 Downing Street will soon be telling us: it's even worse than he thought.

Expect the application of pain to nearly every part of the body public over the next 12 months.

Oh, and I nearly forgot, a very happy new year to you.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    And a happy New Year to you, Mr Fraser.
    What worries me is that even though we know No 11 will be telling us it's even worse, no-one has started to look at what it may mean, let alone ask questions like where should the NHS be delivered, at home, at the site of an accident or only in the doctor's surgery or the hospital.
    It's to Labour's advantage to keep us in the dark over what it may involve as then they can portray all and any idea to reduce expenditure as some Tory plot against the ordinary man or woman whilst knowing that they themselves will have to do the same if re-elected. That is, IMO, dishonest and a contempt of the voter and so reason for my vote going elsewhere in March or May or whenever.

  • Comment number 2.

    Handclapping seems to have overlooked the fact that it's an SNP government making policy and decisions in Scotland. The Labour party simply forms part of the official opposition.
    That said, the overall outlook for the whole of the island is that the slight growth in September in non-oil categories (which is where most of the jobs are) will continue on-track. Growth is already restored in our island's jobs markets - but less so in the vital Northern portions either side of our border.
    Ending QE will have mixed impacts: interest rates on Bonds will rise taking annutiies upwards too. But immigration will probably continue to be negative in Scotland and in Northern England, which will ensure home price rises will lag those further south.
    The critical issue would be any temptation to introduce Panic Budget measures to follow the election, with severe consequences for the continuing economic recovery.

  • Comment number 3.

    Leftie seems to have overlooked the fact that the economy in Scotland is reserved to Westminster and that it's Labour that rule there. If Labour won't tell what they intend doing, how can the voter decide or the Scot's Government plan, make policy or do anything useful to get out of the pit Labour has dug for all of us.

  • Comment number 4.

    2 Leftie If you've wakened up now you might find it was all a dream. The recession isn't over , is a long way from being over, and as long as the Labour party is in Westminster, it will not be over. Like all the times in the twentieth century when we had a Labour government, the country has been dragged to the edge of banktrupcy and the much maligned Tories will be left to repair the damage done and to take the flak for the measures the incompetence of this Labour governments forces them to take to get Britain solvent.

  • Comment number 5.

    The financial crisis is showing that political will is needed to get countries, if not out of recession, at least on the way to recovery. So far success within the disunited European Union is mixed; and the EU found at Copenhagen recently that cohesive power politics [especially between the USA and China] can win the day.

    Hopes were high in 1998 for the Good Friday agreement. The innovation of the British-Irish Council would encourage a common stance between two countries and devolved areas on important EU matters. What happened?

  • Comment number 6.

    Many people have been concerned with the unemployment numbers recently. A decrease in unemployment rate is waiting they are looking for, as an indicator that recovery is taking place. The beginnings of that indicator are beginning to happen – in that fewer people are filing for unemployment assistance. The number of jobless claiming unemployment fell by over 200,000 between March and December of 2009. This doesn't necessitate that many fewer people will need payday loans [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator] in 2010, but that the rate of jobs being lost is reducing, and the number of employed is increasing.

Ìý

´óÏó´«Ã½ iD

´óÏó´«Ã½ navigation

´óÏó´«Ã½ © 2014 The ´óÏó´«Ã½ is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more.

This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. While you will be able to view the content of this page in your current browser, you will not be able to get the full visual experience. Please consider upgrading your browser software or enabling style sheets (CSS) if you are able to do so.