大象传媒

I don't have much in common with Julie Andrews in the Sound of Music, but her focus on the issue of confidence brings together the world of the novice nun and the recession watcher.

We've got more data on that out this morning, and it's running counter to the first batch of retail figures from Christmas sales.

The tills may have been ringing at John Lewis and Next, but the monthly survey for Nationwide Building Society suggests that consumer confidence may be short-lived.

It has found a steady improvement in the British public's levels of confidence from a dismal low registered last January. But the survey carried out for the month to 20 December saw that trend given a sharp jolt.

Consumer confidence saw a five point decrease, the biggest one-month drop for 14 months.

The survey breaks that down into an understanding of what people think of the current situation, and how they view things six months away.

Throughout the past year, the Nationwide survey has registered the public's very dim view of how things feel at the time people are surveyed.

It found only 2% of people thinking things were 'good' last February, rising to 10% by October. That fell back to 6% in the most recent figures.

But that has contrasted with future expectations, which helps explain why the recession has not been as bad for falling demand as had been feared. Last January, a majority of people thought things would get worse over the next six months.

That fell to 14% in November, as evidence the public thought the corner had been turned.

But by last month, those fearing worse to come are on the rise again, to 19%, while there was a fall in those foreseeing the economy will be in better shape, down from 41% to 34%.

What lies behind this jolt?

Perhaps a realisation, with the Pre-Budget Statement, that the state of the public finances presents the threat of a new downturn.

Nationwide's chief economist, Martin Gahbauer, suggests "that an element of caution may have begun to creep back into the minds of consumers over the Christmas period... Although it is still early days, these lower expectations may foreshadow a more sluggish consumer outlook in 2010 as stimulus measures are withdrawn".

And how does this compare with other countries? In America, for instance, where consumer confidence is seen as the key to bringing recession to an end?

A similar survey carried out over the same period in the USA found confidence still rising, slightly.

The 'present situation' index for The Conference Board survey saw a fall from November to December, and it now sits at a 26-year low.

Expectations of the next six months were on the rise, but consumers are pessimistic about their short-term prospects, which is seen as a likely downbeat indicator of the way money is spent or hoarded in coming months.

Across the European Union, the best indication of the public mood comes in the six-monthly Eurobarometer. Its most recent survey, carried out during autumn, shows unemployment has risen above the economic situation as the main public concern.

In autumn 2008, only 26% thought the economy was one of the two most serious issues affecting countries, but that's now at 51%.

In Britain, concern about the economic situation was among the biggest concerns for 28%, with unemployment registering 38%. That puts its mood in mid-range among European nations.

There's no surprise that Greece, Latvia, Ireland and Spain registered the biggest concern, though they are all finding people think things have improved from the spring survey.

What is really striking about that list of priorities is that Britain's concern with immigration, at 29%, is nearly double the rating of any other EU country with the exception of Malta. Don't be surprised if that factor feeds into the Westminster election campaign.