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South-east England versus the Rest

Douglas Fraser | 18:42 UK time, Monday, 5 April 2010

Just where is Britain's north-south divide?

It has been long-contested, and is less often these days the subject of economic or political debate.

But with an election imminent, it may be about to make a comeback, not least because the politics of Labour versus Conservative seem to divide so strongly between north and south - with David Cameron's appeal struggling, on past evidence, to extend north of the Trent.

Of course, there was always a simplicity to discussion of north and south.

South Wales didn't fit that comfortably into the prosperous south.

And the view from New Labour was that this analysis failed to understand the pockets of prosperity in the north and the pockets of deprivation in the south, notably in parts of London.

We've now got new research taking the long view over a century and more.

And it serves to underline the economic dominance not so much of the southern half of England as a much smaller portion of the country, in the south-east.

War damage

Economic historians Frank Geary and Tom Stark have just published their reckoning on gross domestic product as it has grown in different regions and nations of the UK.

They've found that in the 40 years after the onset of the Great Depression in 1931, there was some decline in regional inequality.

This was particularly strong in the 1931-51 period, so it may have had something to do with the Second World War war effort and damage.

The 40-year narrowing may also have been helped by active regional policy.

But after the mid-1970s, the impact of accelerating industrial decline, the rise of the financial sector focussed on the City of London, and arguably the dependence on market economics rather than regional policy that followed the election of Margaret Thatcher, that narrowing of regional inequality went into reverse.

Trickle-out effect

Both productivity and prosperity became less equal, found the University of Ulster study.

Yet it was in this period of least convergence between regions, after 1971, that all regions found growth was at its strongest.

That raises some interesting questions about the way the UK economy works; when growth is maximised, it's particularly strong in the south-east, so what does that tell us about the importance of the south-east to providing a 'trickle-down' or, more accurately, a 'trickle out' effect?

What would it take for regions and nations outside the English south-east to grow more rapidly, without dependence on the London area to provide that dynamo?

And if the financial services sector is now permanently hobbled, having provided much of the growth for Britain over the past two decades, does its weakness mean there will be less inequality between the nations and English regions than we've seen through the 21st century?

And if the outcome of this research is to create an economic picture of 'south-east England versus the Rest', it's also worth noting there's some interesting movement between 'the Rest'.

Over the twentieth century, the biggest growth in GDP per worker relative to the UK average was Northern Ireland, with Scotland coming a distant second.

The losers included Wales and the south-west, but the region most clearly losing ground was northern England.

Devolution dividend

That's the economic historians' take. What of the future, and what will drive the relative performance of different parts of the UK?

The spread of digital technology and superfast broadband, perhaps, giving every region equal access to markets?

The progress or sclerosis of the transport system, with or without high-speed rail? The concentration of skills and educational assets, at which Scotland starts with an advantage?

Or could it be driven by political choices; a devolution dividend helping Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (and London?), allied to a return to English regional policy.

We haven't heard much about that for decades.

There have been hints that we might find out more in this election campaign.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    "...allied to a return to English regional policy"

    Yes it's fair to say we can expect to see more of the English "regions" in the future - what we're less likely to see is the people of England as a whole having any kind of consultation or referendum on what happens.

    The best way forward for England and the English people is for the re-establishment of the English parliament spending English taxes on England. Unfortunately the British government has convinced itself that allowing England the same recognition and representation as Scotland will lead to the end of their precious Union.

    The real threat to the Union comes from continuing to ignore the English and to pretend they can wipe out over a thousand years of history by refusing to say the E word.

    The people of England have not been consulted on the balkanisation/abolition of England - the "regions" remain illegitimate until the people consent.

    England one nation. English parliament now.

  • Comment number 2.

    Relative economic success is not "economic dominance" nor is it a matter of South East England versus (i.e. in conflict with) the rest. The economic engine in the South East benefits the whole of the UK. Scottish stirring about English regions is an unwelcome attempt to divide England and divert attention from the privileged economic and financial position currently enjoyed by Scotland and, to a lesser extent, Wales. If there is a conflict, it is England versus the rest.

  • Comment number 3.

    1. englandrise
    "England one nation. English parliament now."

    Thats why the SNP and Plaid don't vote on English only matters the problem is Westminster still living in the 18th century as they are control freaks. A hung parliament might help both our causes but an awful lot of people are frightened of change and will stick to one or other of the main parties.

  • Comment number 4.

    #2 Galletly2 says "the economic engine in the South East benefits the whole of the UK"

    No it doesn't. The financial services sector in particular has done nothing but harm to the overall economy. It failed to invest in new companies, it positively drooled over the sale of UK companies to foreign owners, it didn't want to support manufacturing, it encouraged the use of credit to buy foreign goods, connived with the Labour govt to push up house prices to create the illusion of wealth and it supported hedge funds and private equity companies neither of which created anything new.

    The "hobbling" of the financial services sector is not something we should cry over providing we can build a new and more useful one. That of course depends very much on the govt and actually I see nothing to suggest they would agree.

  • Comment number 5.

    2. Galletly2
    "The economic engine in the South East benefits the whole of the UK. "

    Oh, come on. The economic engine of the South East benefits--the South East?

    Or why don't you bring up some myth that the rest of the UK is supported like a charity case while attributing their contribution in the VAT, et al to the UK as a whole instead of the region.

    If there is a conflict, it is England versus the rest.

    And if that is so, just WHOSE fault is that?

    You mean to tell me that with 533 English MPs out of the total of 646 MPs total that England doesn't run it for its own benefit?

    Riiight.

  • Comment number 6.

    Or could it be driven by political choices; a devolution dividend helping Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (and London?), allied to a return to English regional policy.

    We haven't heard much about that for decades.


    According to this, you might be hearing more about such things in the near future. One wonders what is so frightening to many people about it.



  • Comment number 7.

    "Scottish stirring about English regions is an unwelcome attempt to divide England and divert attention from the privileged economic and financial position currently enjoyed by Scotland"

    It's a strange "privileged economic and financial position" that sees Scotland give away all its oil revenues to another country in return for "subsidy".

  • Comment number 8.

    Douglas "Just where is Britain's north-south divide?"

    London versus the rest because they keep the books hidden from public view and only tell what they want us to know, there are plenty of countries that act like that and they are all dictatorships in an honest world and proud to be labelled as such. London has been subsidised for decades by all other regions but they wont admit it not good for moral old chap.

  • Comment number 9.

    The North-South divide has nothing to do with economics - it is a geographical, linguistic and historical (William the Conqueror's Harrying of the North, anyone?) division that unfortunately happens to correlate with a relatively recent (i.e. in the last 200 years) economic trend.

  • Comment number 10.

    The treasury has been pocketing all the money from the Crown Estates yet How many centuries has this been going on?

  • Comment number 11.

    But after the mid-1970s, the impact of accelerating industrial decline, the rise of the financial sector focussed on the City of London, and arguably the dependence on market economics rather than regional policy that followed the election of Margaret Thatcher, that narrowing of regional inequality went into reverse.

    Which allowed corrupt bankers gamble on the markets further encouraged by the present unelected PM allowing him to carry on borrowing billions every year (13) that he has been in government the folly of which only came to light with the collapse of the subprime market. We can all borrow and live beyond our means but for someone of his authority to do so could be construed as treasonable in an honest democratic society.

  • Comment number 12.

    What part of the prosperity of the South East is due to the London Weighting allowance? Something like £4000 a year for workers in central London, and £3000 for the rest. How many million benefit from that?
    If that perk was taken from London and given to say Newcastle, Glasgow,
    Belfast and Cardiff I bet you would soon see the balance of prosperity shifting. But ofcourse those who have the power to do that benefit from the present set up, so no chance.
    Alzi

  • Comment number 13.

    Douglas

    A link to the study would have been useful. That would have allowed us to see whether the authors had taken account of the ex-Regio scam of the revenue from the Continental Shelf.

    Since we know that UK Governments have effectively lied about Scottish revenues since the 1970s, we need to know whether academics are effectively complicit in that lie.

  • Comment number 14.

    I think most people accept a large proportion of the UK's wealth is generated in London and that the UK as a whole does benefit.

    However given that why does so much public money get spent on an already wealthy city?

    Why is the olympics in london? Why not Birmingham? If it was in Birmingham not only would it be held at the countries most central point it would also create new jobs, buildings and properity in the UK's second largest city.

    Imagine if we could have a 'second' london in the heart of the west midlands?

    But no like everything else, millenium wheel, london eye etc etc everything always goes to london.

    Also don't give me this rubbish about there being poor parts of london. All london boroughs have the best funded schools in the country and the people in those areas live in the most wealthy city with the most facilities, jobs and prospects of anywhere in the UK.

    There are no 'poor' parts of london.

  • Comment number 15.

    The sooner we are all, and that includes England, shot of the Westmonster yoke, the better. We have all been subsidising these lying politicians whose vision stretches no further than London, except when there is an election. It is long past time that the "British" (London) institution was dismantled, and a fairer form of government installed.
    The coming independence of Scotland (and it will come) will be the beginning of a fairer society for us all.

  • Comment number 16.

    #1 englandrise. Morning , fully agree with you that England should have it's own Parliament raising and spending it's own revenue, in fact the sooner the better. only a few problems ; I still think you have a heck of a lot of persuading to do to get your fellow Englishmen to join you and when you finally succeed you would find out that the mail ,the express,the mirror,the sun et all would have a very big bit of explaining to do ! they can call us spongers,benefit cheats and everything else we have been called by the English press but the fact yep FACT is that the United Kingdom cannot even contemplate full fiscal autonomy for Scotland never mind even thinking about Independence.
    I can say this as all you have to do is look at the total shambles that is the Callman commission
    if you want an English Parliament spending English taxes you are more than welcome to it in fact i would fully support you in your endeavours

    Good luck , Sid

  • Comment number 17.

    "that sees Scotland give away all its oil revenues"

    William Wallace alert....

    I was not aware that Scotland had any oil revenues. Of course there are some oil fields in UK waters, of which the revenue is collected by westminster and distributed accordingly....

  • Comment number 18.

    The UK has the most centralized, concentrated area of importance than anywhere else in the world.
    I live in Bolton which is about 10 miles out of Manchester. Manchester is a good place to visit with an interesting history, especially anything to do with the industrial revolution. But that's it. Everything, every damn thing in England, the government has decided, has to take place in LONDON - BLOODY LONDON. Massive, massive much needed public transport cash has been shoveled to BLOODY LONDON. The new Wembley (Home of Football - like hell it is) now holds the 2 FA Cup semis. When England next holds the World Cup, England will play everyone of their games at Wembley as they did in '66'. England is the only place in the world to do this. Everywhere else, the host country always plays at, at least two other cities.
    The examples I have given relate to football. The same is true for anything you care to name. All sport, theatre, art galleries, museums. All the top jobs - legal, media, government you name it.
    No other country in the world has this concentration.

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