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The in-tray at Number 11

Douglas Fraser | 22:11 UK time, Thursday, 6 May 2010

Markets are open through the night, giving traders the opportunity to react to election results as they come in.

Likewise, the currency markets, which remain open round the clock somewhere round the world, will make their own judgements on the economic implications of the way British voters vote.

And it is their judgements that will be the first headache confronting the new (or continuing?) Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Whether or not there's uncertainty resulting from British polls, the emergence of a new government could hardly come at a more alarming time for markets, where jitters about European debt turned to panic on Wall Street on Thursday afternoon.

The credit ratings agencies - discredited though they may be by their failures to spot trouble looming two years ago - have held off a judgement on Britain's mounting sovereign debt worries. They couldn't be seen to interfere, could they?

But as voters did the business on Thursday, we got a reminder that they're ready to review things once the government settles down.

With the markets pricing in a very high risk of a Greek default on sovereign debt, still pricing bonds today at a 15% return despite the intended reassurance of 110bn euros of bail-out loans - Moody's confirmed that Portugal is next in its cross-hairs.

Problem 'manageable'

Spain and Italy are next after that, though the sense of contagion hasn't yet reached Italy. And then it's off to the Atlantic coast, to Ireland and the UK. Britain, you'll note, is the only one that could help itself with devaluation.

But Moody's note emphasises that Britain's deficit and fast-growign sovereign debt allied to an unusually big banking sector can be a bad combination, as trouble in private and public sector feeds of each other.

The problem for France and Germany, apart from having to provide loans for Greece, is their private banks' huge exposure to Greek debt; US$75bn for France, US$45bn for Germany.

Figures from the international bank organisation show British banks are also exposed to around US$15 bn of Greece's debt.

All we've heard so far from the Royal Bank of Scotland is that its problem is "manageable".

Drastic things

So steadying the ship, and persuading the markets the new British government is serious about cracking down on the deficit is priority number one for Chancellor Osborne/Darling/Balls/Cable.

And if they look at the law passed today in the Greek parliament, it shows just how drastic things have to be to handle a deficit of similar scale:

Public sector pay has been frozen until 2014, with public sector salary bonuses, equivalent to two months pay - have been scrapped or capped.

Pensions have been frozen or cut, with the retirement age up. VAT is up from 19 to 23%, and tax on fuel, tobacco and a bottle of ouzo and its alcohol ilk is up by 10%. (Note: Greece is a big market for Scotch whisky.)

How would that go down in Britain? Rioting, or a stiff upper lip?

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