Foot off the accelerator
How do you spend half a billion quid on "driving more efficiently"?
This is not a wholly sceptical question. It is one of the puzzles emerging from a Scottish government document setting out the likely costs of climate change.
Having reported on Monday that there's a bill of, very roughly, £8bn to deliver the ambitious targets for reduced climate changing emissions, I've since been shown some of the thinking and arithmetic that gets civil servants to that "highly provisional" figure.
So let me share them with you. The calculations were made in May, at a time when an equally uncertain total for Scottish government spending over the next 12 years came to £6.7bn. The £8bn figure is a more recent update.
Of that £6.7bn, the total spend on energy measures would be £2bn.
Nearly £1bn would be spent on energy efficiency in buildings. And of that, roughly two-thirds would go into support for improvements to homes.
With tight government budgets, there's vague talk of "exploring new funding mechanisms for implementing energy efficiency programmes across Scotland".
So far, that's meant the energy utilities have been regulated into taking the strain.
Slow down
The total cost of transport measures came close to £4bn. Half a billion would go on "driving more efficiently", as I mentioned.
This seems to include a range of measures, with the ten most cost-effective listed.
These include promotion of eco-driving (for fuel efficiency), reduced speed limits, and fewer car parking spaces to discourage drivers from taking their cars into town or work.
There's talk of improving the efficiency of vans and lorries, which currently spend many of their road miles empty or near-empty.
There could be a big bill for installing a network of points to plug in electric cars, and car clubs, a form of rental, such as the one that operates in Edinburgh city centre.
There's no talk, however, of a suggestion made by Barack Obama while running for the presidency, when he observed that Americans could save fuel by having their tyres pumped up to the right pressure. He was ridiculed for that, even though he had a point.
Farmyard emissions
Significant in the civil service briefing is that new or upgraded railways get dismissed as having poor carbon abatement returns on huge investment costs.
That thinking may inform project funding over the looming years of capital spending famine.
The other area of spending is on the land. Only £2m is earmarked for schemes to tackle the considerable carbon-loaded impact of methane from either end of Scotland's farm animals.
Far more - a huge £800m - is seen as necessary to encourage the planting of 15,000 hectares of new woodland each year.
In journalism, we like to make such measurements meaningful, by offering helpful comparison.
So to use two such classics, that's nearly 15,000 maximum-sized football pitches each year, and over 12 years, it's nearly one hundredth the area of Wales.
Comment number 1.
At 3rd Aug 2010, Radiowonk wrote:Ultimately, of course, this is not solely a Scottish problem. The UK seems to have set itself legally binding carbon reduction targets that are going to prove impossible to achieve. Quite what happens then might prove entertaining; which authority has the legal powers to take the government to task for failing to meet one of its own targets?
Now I am not to going to start arguing the rights and wrongs of the existence of climate change, much less mans' activities contributing to it, but I have a very strong feeling that governments (and not just in the UK) have been sucked into kneejerk reactions to prognostications of imminent doom by others who may very well have their own axes to grind.
Now although the private car is seen as a major factor in the generation of carbon emissions, if we all decided to reduce our car use by (say) 50% there would be an immediate drop in the tax revenue to the Treasury. Is that really what politicians want? If we were able to keep to that limit it might also mean that we kept our cars for longer, which would meean that fewer cars would be sold. Oops; less tax for the Treaury and fewer jobs in the car manufacturing business. It is, of course, typical of politicians that they should see car use as a "problem", without bothering to find out why people are using those cars in the first place; there seems to be an automatic assumption that most or all car use is "frivolous", whereas I take the view that no - one in their right mind would willingly launch themselves into a queue of traffic every day unless there was a good underlying reason.
Carbon dioxide emission is (as things stand) an inevitable consequence of our lives, and effecting a significant reduction will only be achieved by a complete change in how we lead our lives; I take the view that no such change is likely, because it would result in governments having to make do with less (tax / growth / jobs / etc) and that just seems too unlikely to happen. The activities that generate carbon dioxide are so deeply embedded in the entire "economy" that they cannot be targeted without having a serious effect on the economy as a whole; to think otherwise is indicative of rigidly compartmentalised thinking, which is of course a speciality of politicians.
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Comment number 2.
At 3rd Aug 2010, F1rst wrote:"... fewer car parking spaces to discourage drivers from taking their cars into town or work."
Won't that cause people to drive around our city centres for longer until they find a space, causing more congestion, pollution and more fuel use?!
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Comment number 3.
At 3rd Aug 2010, ForcourtFuels wrote:Recent discussions advocate an easy way to reduce fuel consumption is to eco-manage a fleet and better educate drivers; however it is debatable whether sending drivers with years of experience and habits, will benefit or even take any notice of a course of this nature.
There are various tactics which can be employed however a good long-term option is to look at the type of fuel that you fill your engine with.
There are fuels on the market which have been tested and proven to lower wastage and improve fuel efficiency. Particularly for business surely changing the fuel that is put in the tank is much easier way to reduce emissions, than having to retrain a driver.
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Comment number 4.
At 3rd Aug 2010, Tom W wrote:"15,000 hectares of new woodland each year.... that's nearly 15,000 maximum-sized football pitches each year"
A standard IFAB football pitch is 105 x 68m, or 0.718 hecatres. So that's just over 21,000 football pitches.
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Comment number 5.
At 3rd Aug 2010, DrLoser wrote:That's an extremely thought-provoking comparison.
Now all we need to do is to find somebody to pay £80 billion to buy Wales and close it down. This is an all-round winner. No more pestilential conifers marring the landscape; no more Songs of Praise; even watching rugby down the pub would be more enjoyable. Oh, and we could even re-use the pits in the valleys for carbon storage.
Who'd buy such a concept? Well, I can think of at least one large petrochemical multinational with deep pockets and a desperate need to make an eco-statement.
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Comment number 6.
At 3rd Aug 2010, curiousman wrote:Trying to be constructive: Both Scotland and Wales have sources of green energy in their wind, waves, streams and rivers. I know someone in Wales who was thinking of installing a 1.5kW wind power scheme with a 3 metre windmill system for £1000. Good idea, unfortunately planning permission for the scheme was to cost £300. It seems planning authorities are there to deter eco systems not to encourage them. Needless to say he is abandoning the scheme.
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Comment number 7.
At 3rd Aug 2010, Sutara wrote:It would help if the Scottish Parliament made sure that certain agencies that they fund didn't spout out nonsense to the general public about the notion.
Once such piece of rubbish is the notion that driving more slowly saves fuel. Indeed, not all that long ago you were given that advice on those electronic variable message signs on the side of Scottish roads and also received such profoundly wrong advice from the government-funded Energy Saving Trust (Scotland).
Thankfully, they have now both changed their tune. But how can you trust agencies that get it sooooooo wrong?
[For clarity, the issue of saving fuel (and pollution) is not connected to your road speed, it's connected to your engine speed. Basically - leaving aside engines which are labouring or are running at very high revs - approxiamately speaking, each time your engine turns over it uses the same amount of fuel. Therefore, if you do, say, 20 miles at 50 mph in sixth gear you do it at pretty low revs so you use fuel fairly efficiently. Do the same distance and speed in fifth, your fuel consumption will go up just because your engine is turning over that many more times, and in fourth it'll be even more again. Note that you're not covering any more distance OR getting there any faster/slower!]
Slow down and save fuel? - COMPLETE MYTH.
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