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Number crunching

Douglas Fraser | 19:07 UK time, Thursday, 9 September 2010

Little more than a month to go to the Comprehensive Spending Review, and the tension is being cranked up.

Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, is today trying to calm fears that all the pain is going to come at once. At the same time, Chancellor George Osborne says he's identified another £4bn in cuts to welfare.

That raises questions about whether any savings can be recycled into reform of the system, or if all those cuts are set against the deficit.

It may be time for Iain Duncan Smith, the self-styled Quiet Man at the Department of Work and Pensions, to turn up the volume.

This morning, it was for MSPs to debate the Independent Budget Review led by Crawford Beveridge. This is as the former Scottish Enterprise chief has returned to Scotland to help explain his group's thinking.

From Labour, more sign of the direction of travel its MSPs will take in shaping the budget this winter. "Fairness and protecting jobs" was what Andy Kerr set out.

That raises two questions. What does "fairness" mean? Fair to whom?

Means testing

The Economist recently castigated British politicians for the woolliness of "fairness" thinking, pointing out that, as with equality, fairness of outcomes is a long way from fairness of opportunity.

The other is whether Labour's pitch joins the SNP in taking us towards an election campaign with a "no compulsory redundancies" pitch.

Number crunchers simply don't think that's possible, but try telling that to the manifesto writers.

A contribution to this debate comes today from the expert adviser to Holyrood's finance committee.

Professor David Bell has highlighted some of the significant gaps in the Beveridge Report, most notably: "What may seem lacking is a general set of principles to guide the redesign of a significantly slimmed down Scottish public sector".

Among those principles are those around the application of more means-testing.

And significantly, Professor Bell, whose day job is at Stirling University, is inviting MSPs to consider carefully the implications of a pay and hiring freeze.

That can lead to valued people leaving, or important posts going unfilled, skewing the delivery of services.

Better, suggests the prof, to take a lesson from the private sector and delegate frozen or reduced budgets, so that managers closer to services can decide best how to implement cuts.

Why not cut working hours, for instance, as a means of cutting costs without costing jobs?

https://www.scottish.parliament.uk/s3/committees/finance/inquiries/budget/ibrg_adviser.pdf

Another interesting contribution to this debate comes from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

It has studied the jobs market at the minimum wage margins, and it's challenging the notion that people given sticks and carrots to get off benefits can easily enter the workplace.

The UK government's policy on that will have to be much smarter, argues Tracy Shildrick of Teeside University. It's worth a read:
www.jrf.org.uk/focus-issue/cuts-spending-and-society

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    I don't agree with Professor Bell.

    Given the current climate in the jobs market it is highly unlikely "valued people" would leave, or important posts go unfilled. If the jobs market was buoyant it might be true as some would be prepared to take the risk but then if the jobs market was buoyant the public sector cuts wouldn't be going to be so extreme.

  • Comment number 2.

    Well the real problem is how to lose the not valued employees from the taxpayers' wage-roll.

    There will be huge challenges to public services of all kinds and to respond effectively many people in the public sector workforces will have to adapt significantly and let go of old ways of working and old expectations of job security, a nice publicly-funded wage and a nice publicly funded pension to look forward to.

    And many of their managers will have to significantly improve their abilities in terms of risk managing, managing staff performance and managing change.

    Isn't "no compulsory redundancies" the thing that ensures that people get "slotted in" to other posts within the organisation? Isn't that at conflict with the notion of "the best people to do the job"?

    So are we saying that public services can be delivered by any old numpties, or are we saying the public / taxpayers / voters deserve the best people dekuverubg and runnning their public services that the available money can buy?

  • Comment number 3.

    No doubt a few bin men and filing clerks will lose their jobs, some services will be cut which don't need to be cut and the overloading of non essential jobs and high paid executive posts will continue, along with a surfeit of councillors environmentalists drug and alchohol councellors welfare officers etc.

  • Comment number 4.

    I've recently seen estimated figures for one Health Board in terms of its expectations of its funding reduction over the next five years - they're eye-watering!

    And they don't seem to include the reduced slice of the tax cake that Scotland will now get.

  • Comment number 5.

    The notion that ALL the Unemployed can "easily" enter the Work-Place creates a false impression that there are Millions of Job vacancies just sitting around crying out for someone even anyone to fill them, but this of course is Coalition Government Spin upon a grand scale working itself up into a frenzie of false beliefs that if you want a Job all you have to do is to just ask and you will automatically be re-train upon the spot to fill any Job Vacancy going.

    Tonight upon ´óÏó´«Ã½2's Scottish Newsnight Programme we heard from the happless Iain Duncan-Smith rabbiting on that he is going to get People off of State Benefits and into Work, while during the Full-Term of this Con-Demned Government period in Office we will in fact be seeing Unemployment RISING to higher levels never before seen in Scotland in living memory.

    For it is utterly and stupidly foolish for IDS or any other Con-Denmed Ministers to suggest that without Jobs being made available up-front before we know what Skills to Train/Re-train the Unemployed for future Trades to do, will we ever get anywhere near to getting to grips with the scale of the task ahead, for all the time Public Sector Cut-Backs occur over the next 5 Years we will not be able to replace and rotate a rolling Programme of any Job lost with a New Job gained instantly overnight.

    We will find that NOT at the very least until after the end of the 5 Year term of this current Westminster coalition at the earlist will we know or understand what Jobs will be needed and it what Sectors and types of New IT Companies can we afford to support the Growth that will allow any New Companies to expand and grow thereby for future creating Export, for the last thing we would want to do would be to spend and further waste either Government money that we simply just don't have, or Private money upon Projects that will simply just fail, thus creating more Turn-Style short term employment which will lead once again into more Long - Term Unemployment.

    The current Pie-In-The-Sky Policies of IDS and others looks therefore as if they are already Doomed for failure, not because of their good intentions, but quite simply because NO ONE including Iain Duncan-Smith has any ideas whatsoever as to how much of a New created demand there will be for any NEW Products as of now ( Currently, not yet developed ), plus the cost involved in any Training/Re-training and in what current or New Fields of productivity these Jobs will be required and at what levels of Qualification attainments will be needed to substain any renewed Jobs Market is currently unknown.

  • Comment number 6.

    The notion that ALL the Unemployed can "easily" enter the Work-Place creates a false impression that there are Millions of Job vacancies just sitting around crying out for someone even anyone to fill them, but this of course is Coalition Government Spin upon a grand scale working itself up into a frenzie of false beliefs that if you want a Job all you have to do is to just ask and you will automatically be re-train upon the spot to fill any Job Vacancy going.



    Tonight upon ´óÏó´«Ã½2's Scottish Newsnight Programme we heard from the happless Iain Duncan-Smith rabbiting on that he is going to get People off of State Benefits and into Work, while during the Full-Term of this Con-Demned Government period in Office we will in fact be seeing Unemployment RISING to higher levels never before seen in Scotland in living memory.



    For it is utterly and stupidly foolish for IDS or any other Con-Denmed Ministers to suggest that without Jobs being made available up-front before we know what Skills to Train/Re-train the Unemployed for future Trades to do, will we ever get anywhere near to getting to grips with the scale of the task ahead, for all the time Public Sector Cut-Backs occur over the next 5 Years we will not be able to replace and rotate a rolling Programme of any Job lost with a New Job gained instantly overnight.



    We will find that NOT at the very least until after the end of the 5 Year term of this current Westminster coalition at the earlist will we know or understand what Jobs will be needed and it what Sectors and types of New IT Companies can we afford to support the Growth that will allow any New Companies to expand and grow thereby for future creating Export, for the last thing we would want to do would be to spend and further waste either Government money that we simply just don't have, or Private money upon Projects that will simply just fail, thus creating more Turn-Style short term employment which will lead once again into more Long - Term Unemployment.



    The current Pie-In-The-Sky Policies of IDS and others looks therefore as if they are already Doomed for failure, not because of their good intentions, but quite simply because NO ONE including Iain Duncan-Smith has any ideas whatsoever as to how much of a New created demand there will be for any NEW Products as of now ( Currently, not yet developed ), plus the cost involved in any Training/Re-training and in what current or New Fields of productivity these Jobs will be required and at what levels of Qualification attainments will be needed to substain any renewed Jobs Market is currently unknown.

  • Comment number 7.

    Wow, I am both the same Post. 5 & 6 here, is that what is meant by Number Crunching, as I would call this Number Expansion.

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