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The Reporters: US mid-terms

Katty Kay

Southern comfort?


Democrats are keeping a close watch on how they play in the South next month, looking for signs the political landscape there could be shifting in their favour. They have been out of favour in the South for ages and sense they could be making inroads into this Republican territory.

ford_ad_ap203b.jpgFirst on the Democrats' list of hopefuls is , running for the US Senate in Tennessee. His bid is historic because he could become the first black senator elected from the South. He's personable, moderate and tough on defence, which is essential to winning high-testosterone Southern votes.

But what's really getting Democratic strategists excited about Mr Ford is the nature of his campaign. He is playing the religion card with ease and that's something Democrats realise they have to learn to do to poll well with Southerners. He is running a TV ad recorded in a church and handing out photo business cards with the 10 Commandments printed on the back. OK, it's not very subtle but it does seem to be working.

Add two more close Senate races in Missouri - a border state ( and ) - and Virginia ( and ) and you have mutterings of a new sunny southern landscape.

Less high-profile but perhaps more significant are the gubernatorial races. If things go their way on election night, the Democrats could end up occupying governors’ mansions across the Southern states.

That said, even the most optimistic Democratic strategists concede this doesn't signify an automatic change in the South's political make-up for 2008.

America is still a few election cycles from the day when Southern states will once again back a Democrat who is not one of their own for the White House.

Not since John F Kennedy in 1960 has the party been able to send a Democrat to the White House who did not come from the South.

But could that change next cycle? As one seasoned party operative told me with a broad smile, "Of course if we get a Democratic governor in Arkansas and our candidate in '08, we could park Bill down there for six months. Now that wouldn't be so bad, would it?"

Katty Kay is a presenter on

°ä´Ç³¾³¾±ð²Ô³Ù²õÌýÌýPost your comment

  • 1.
  • At 05:57 PM on 23 Oct 2006,
  • Shawn wrote:

Nicely written, Katty Kay.

It's about time the South, which languishes behind other areas of the country in every respect, stop voting for Republicans who cynically use them to win then do nothing for them. The conservative Republican agenda is clearly bad for the South. Really, Southerners...look at how oh-so-maligned New England and its liberalism compares to the South and its arch conservatism. Which place is doing better? Which place has better education, lower unemployment, lower divorce rates, lower poverty rates, a more dynamic economy and a higher standard of living?

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  • 2.
  • At 09:58 PM on 23 Oct 2006,
  • Bob Applegate wrote:

You say that:
"His bid is historic because he could become the first black senator elected from the South."

Actually Hiram Rhoades Revels was the first black Senator. Elected in 1870 from the very southern state of Mississippi.

If Harold Ford is elected, he will be the first black Senator from a southern state since reconstruction.

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  • 3.
  • At 10:07 PM on 23 Oct 2006,
  • Josh wrote:

Make that the first black senator in the south since reconstruction. There have been two previous black U.S. senators from the south, but both were shortly after the civil war in the 1860's and 1870's.

See:

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Several readers have correctly pointed out that there have been African-American senators from the South - Hiram Revels and Blanche Kelso. Both were elected by state legislatures before the direct election of senators. I should have said that Harold Ford Jr would be the first _directly_ elected African-American senator from the South.

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  • 5.
  • At 10:18 PM on 23 Oct 2006,
  • George Autry wrote:

I'm suprised by your comment "They (Democrats) have been out of favour in the South for ages" This is not true. Since the end of the civil war up until the early 1990's the South was a bastion of the Democratic Party, even spawning its own term, Dixiecrat. It is only since the early 1990's that Republicans have taken control of the political arena in the South.

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  • 6.
  • At 10:52 PM on 23 Oct 2006,
  • Ed Nicholson wrote:

Remember, the American South was conservative long before it was Republican (Abraham Lincoln, after all, was a Republican). The South used to be dominated by the Democratic party prior to the 1960s (of course, the Democrats in the South frequently used to be branded "conservative Democrats"). There's little reason a "Democratic" south can't be conservative as well.

Has the South changed very much since the end of the Civil Rights era? I doubt it, and I don't think a change in partisan power in the South will bring about that much change (except in a time of true crisis, like in the Civil Rights era). Despite all the junk being said on talk radio, the Democrats are not a radical change from Republicans, especially in the South. But are major changes needed in the South? To the extent that it affects Southerners alone, that's for them to decide. But when Southerners work to ruin the whole country, and then other parts of the world, something has to be done. I admire the Southern character, energy, creativity and charm (I'm not from the South, but many of my relatives are), but it seems like Southerners have to suffer and make others suffer a great deal before they give in to too much change.

But personally, I think the big problem in America right now isn't right vs. left as much as it is the (primarily) corrupt vs. the (relatively) honest. The Republican Party these days isn't really conservative anymore. It's just mostly corrupt.

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  • 7.
  • At 03:15 PM on 24 Oct 2006,
  • Edward wrote:

As a Brit who lives in a rural area of Virginia, I can tell you that if it was left to the country folk, a black person would be lucky to get double digits in voting. I am amazed at the continued negative attitudes towards black people.

When we first moved to the area and I asked where the local trash facility is, my neighbour told me it was down a certain road and right at the coloured church. I honestly drove down there looking for some funky coloured hippy church.

As for VA, the only reason the Democrate may win is because George Allen (Republican) is a typical negative campaigner who smells of corruption and ignorance.

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  • 8.
  • At 09:38 PM on 24 Oct 2006,
  • Mary wrote:

The South is not a monolith. Florida and Georgia both, for example, have Deep South areas and northern transplant areas. Immigration has become a key issue because Southerners are experiencing it in North Carolina and elsewhere - not because of pictures of the border. So what you will find is that political issues are still local. The politicians, Democrat or Republican, must know their voters in the South or show that they know what their issues are. Sharing a lifestyle is a shorthand way of saying "I worry about the same things you do." When a huge percentage of your voters are churchgoers, then you will gain if you are too. Harold Ford is running for the U.S. Senate. He has a whole state to convince. Short-hand messages like the cards you mention may not seem subtle but they help him clearly get his values across to people who "get" that message. Now if we want to talk unsubtle, let's talk Katherine Harris...

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  • 9.
  • At 02:00 PM on 25 Oct 2006,
  • john smoke wrote:

Harold Ford comes from one of the south's most corrupt families in one of the most corrupt cities, Memphis. Sounding and acting like a white Al Gore doesn't endear him to Tennessee voters either.

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