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The treaty Blair wanted

• Mark Mardell
• 23 Jun 07, 05:00 AM

It wouldn鈥檛 be quite true to say that Tony Blair was as fresh as a daisy - but more perky than anyone has a right to be at five in the morning. He鈥檇 just won the treaty he wanted. As he talked, a very senior negotiator whispered to me, 鈥淲hat do you make of it?鈥� with the small smile of a tired man who knew he鈥檇 done his job rather satisfactorily.

Afterwards I bumped into some profoundly Eurosceptic politicans in the lift, deriding Mr Blair鈥檚 words on a positive Europe. 鈥淲ell, that鈥檚 the referendum gone,鈥� one of them said. But the argument is far from over. It will depend how the newspapers and the Conservatives play it.

In fact, Mr Blair knows that he could never stop the demands for a referendum, but he could certainly undermine them. The proposed reform treaty, which won鈥檛 be signed until December, is riddled with italicised print put in specially for the British government.

'Transfer of power'

It鈥檚 quite clear that there has been detailed political work, scouring the newspapers and websites arguing for a referendum, and answering them. The Charter of Fundamental Rights will affect British law? It says in black and white it won鈥檛. Britain will have to give up its seat on the UN Security Council? The treaty says that is not the case. Britain will lose power through the new voting system? Here, it鈥檚 not clever negotiating but Polish intransigence that comes to the aid of the British government. There won鈥檛 be a new voting system until 2014.

Of course, the opposition鈥檚 ammo hasn鈥檛 all been stolen. William Hague issued a statement well before the ink was dry, saying that what we had all seen by then amounted to a major transfer of power. Tony Blair has agreed to give up its veto in more than 40 areas, all of them minor according to the government. Some argue that having a President of the European Council could lead eventually to a directly-elected President of Europe. The European Union gains a single legal personality, in other words the right to join international organisations.

But in this case the devil may be outside the detail, as far as Mr Brown is concerned. Reading through the many comments made by readers of this blog, I come across some very detailed specific arguments. But most of those calling for a referendum take a much more broad-brush approach. They don鈥檛 like what they believe is European Union bureaucracy, inefficiency and waste. They feel that they have never had a vote on a relationship that has got much stronger and deeper since the UK joined. And they want one, so they can say 鈥淣o鈥� and alter that relationship. The absence of a sub-clause or the addition of a footnote will not deter them.

The Conservatives have already called for a referendum. They know this is not an easy argument to keep up, when there is not a chance of Gordon Brown giving in. But they will argue that, like many a Brown budget, it will repay days of careful reading.

Navel-gazing over

As for those who support the European Union, the pragmatists will be relieved and the idealists mortified. The Merkels, Sarkozys, Barrosos and possibly even Browns of this world will be relieved that a union of 27 states can still, just about, reach an agreement.

Above all, they will be glad that the navel-gazing is over, and hunt around for more projects like energy and climate change to show that they are better off acting together. The stage will be set for further Brown/Sarkozy clashes on the economy.

As for the real federalists, they will be bitterly disappointed. The Belgians kicked up a last-minute fuss because the UK had been given too much. There will be protests in the European Parliament that this tiny treaty tears the heart out of a document that was formally and legally backed by 18 countries. Some will grumble about countries like Britain and Poland making the weather rather than those loyal to the vision of the EU鈥檚 founding fathers.

There will, again, be talk of an inner core pressing ahead alone. As the outgoing Belgian prime minister has pointed out, there already is one: the countries that are in the euro, don鈥檛 have border controls and co-operate on policing. They will feel a glimmer of hope that even if the steps are tiny, then at least they are going in the right direction. Who will be the first to argue this is all very well but what Europe needs is a constitution?

UPDATE: And what did Mr Blair get given at his last summit? Mrs Merkel says it was so late "just a few warm words". Her words for Gordon Brown were a little colder, hoping that Britain's next leader would show a similar commitment to Europe.

Sarkozy said he very much regretted the departure of a man 鈥渨ho has looked for compromise in Europe and taken the United Kingdom into Europe". Then he added: 鈥淚've had the chance to speak to Gordon Brown and Tony Blair - I hope and am sure that Gordon Brown, by passing from 11 to 10 Downing Street, will have the heart to have a positive discourse. It's extremely important.鈥�

Perhaps the reason for this lack of warmth was the chancellor's alarm at the way the French president had tried to pull a fast one over economic policy. Mr Sarkozy went on to say the word-change on competition was very important and suggested that it could indeed change EU law. So watch this space. I feel this argument isn't over.

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