大象传媒

Will Turkey give a vote of confidence to the new men from Kayseri, welcome the unlikely pitch-invaders? Or will whoever wins do so by default, for the lack of a third way?

It鈥檚 a broiling hot election day in Ankara. The sale and consumption of alcohol is banned during polling day, which may not be such a bad thing as you wouldn鈥檛 want your brains scrambled any more than they are by the heat. Constant draughts of water are what you need and I start my day with Duysun Beyhan, one of the men who delivers it. He used to be a taxi driver, but now has his own van and delivers water to the newly-built pink and peach houses on the outskirts of Ankara where he lives with his wife and three daughters.

He says business is going well and that is why he is voting for the government party, the AKP, and not because they have Islamic roots. He says they鈥檝e delivered low interest rates, kept fuel prices stable and helped with access to health care.

But what about the accusation that, while the party may look pretty meek and mild, it鈥檒l end up with a fundamentalist state and sharia law? After voting with his wife, who wears a headscarf, his finger is stained black, a precaution to make sure people don鈥檛 vote twice. He tells me: 鈥淚 think peope are pretty smart and this has nothing to do with imposing Islamic law 鈥� it鈥檚 not going to happen. People aren't voting for them because of religion but because they are doing a good job.鈥�

Women's rights

More water. Then on to meet Murat Tezcan and some of his friends, whiling their time away playing cards. He鈥檚 25 and has just finished law school, about to embark on another professional qualification. He says the AKP is frightening, because it is undermining the republic鈥檚 most basic value, that of secularism. His argument is less black and white than many who are worried about the AKP鈥檚 rise, and more persuasive.

He says: 鈥淢aybe they're not fundamentalists but even their moderate Islamic model would take Turkish society backwards. It鈥檚 deeply conservative and opposed to our Western way of life.鈥�

His friend Aycegul Koruyycu, who works in her dad鈥檚 insurance firm, is wavering. She has thought about voting for the AKP because they are dong the right things to get Turkey into the European Union, which she wants, but now she鈥檚 not so sure. She鈥檚 wearing a baseball cap and shades, and I can鈥檛 see her going near a headscarf, so I ask her if she feels her rights as a woman are under threat from an Islamic political party.

"In the last four-and-a-half years they haven't made any legal changes that worry me. But as a woman every day I see more people wearing the headscarf. That bothers me," she says.

"I used to be liberal about it and think they should be allowed to wear it, but the numbers are increasing every day and that's worrying. Of course undermining women鈥檚 rights is a big thing... I hope it never happens."

But how much is this a clash about religion, and how much is faith a badge, a symbol, for other social forces?

My 大象传媒 colleagues were filming the other day in Kayseri, in Turkey鈥檚 heartland. Every morning the great and good of this newly booming town get together for a healthy brisk walk up the hill before prayers. It鈥檚 a hard-working, clean-living place, evidently. There鈥檚 been an explosion of industry with a big new factory estate and a newly prosperous middle class to go with it. It鈥檚 the home town of Abdullah Gul, Turkey鈥檚 foreign minister, and in one sense the cause of these elections. Although he was the candidate of the ruling party to become president, the parliament didn鈥檛 endorse him, and the army put down its red lines because they see him as too Islamic (the symbol of that being that his wife wears a headscarf).

The mayor of Kayseri also invented the term 鈥淚slamic Calvinism鈥� as a direct and deliberate lift from the sociologist Weber, who argued that capitalism was in a sense the product of 鈥渢he protestant work ethic鈥�. But see the post by Gul Berna Ozcan: I haven鈥檛 had a chance to read his articles yet, but certainly will do so.

Snobbish elite

Some Western diplomats argue this is what is at the heart of the bitter clash in these elections. They say the secularists鈥� objection to the ruling parties鈥� religious roots is just a mask, a symbol, for a snobbish elite frightened of losing power and money. What Turks wonderfully call 鈥渢he deep state鈥� means this unchanging ruling class. The army, the judges, the bureaucracy supported by an urban elite. So, the theory of these diplomats goes, what they really dislike is brash new money with vulgar cars and conservative values coming into Istanbul and Ankara from the midlands, as much as their headscarved wives.

I think there鈥檚 a good deal to this, although the secularists鈥� fear and dislike of political Islam is very real and not feigned. But this is a battle of different classes, as well as of religion and ideas. Anyone think of any other countries with an urban and coastal liberal elite that feels under threat from the religious politics of the rural hinterland?

The big difference is that the Pentagon wouldn鈥檛 even dream of putting tanks on the White House lawn if George W held a prayer meeting. What my colleagues in Kayseri saw wasn鈥檛 such an intervention, more comic opera than civil strife, but perhaps telling. The vast factory complex has a works league, a series of fiercely contested football matches. In the match my colleagues were observing, in the last minute a penalty was awarded by the ref: it was a dubious call, to say the least. But the team that probably committed the foul in the first place went one up just before, as I believe they say, the final whistle. Players surrounded the ref and started arguing. About eight soldiers with rifles slung over their shoulders took to the pitch.

They didn鈥檛 actually do anything. But they were there. The ultimate authority. It鈥檚 unlikely, but possible that if someone cries foul after this election, there鈥檒l be a pitch invasion. The phrase that keeps coming up in my mind when I write about the Turkish army is Gerry Adams鈥� chilling warning about the IRA (some years ago): 鈥淭hey haven鈥檛 gone away, you know.鈥�

Alienated youth

Thanks once again for all your comments (and earlier here, too), nearly all of them really enlightening. A couple more insightful posts from Ronald Kramer. But Ali and Deniz (in his first paragraph) raise an interesting point which echoes what a lot of people are telling me. As so often in elections all over the world they would like to vote for 鈥渘one of the above鈥�. But this is a specific, not general weariness. A few have joined the ruling party and rightly point to in the New York Times.

The Western diplomats I was talking to think this is the next stage: the AK party will continue to reach across to the centre and build upon its strength. But there are some parts I can鈥檛 see them reaching. Many of the youngish urban middle class, pro-Western sons and daughters of loyal supporters of the republicans, could never bring themselves to vote for a conservative, religious party. But they can鈥檛 stomach the republicans. They despise its leadership as bereft of ideas and find its links with the army old-fashioned and worrying. They want a modern social democratic party, but there isn鈥檛 one. There is a gap in the market. Will it be filled by the time of the next elections?

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