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Treaty endgame

• Mark Mardell
• 3 Oct 07, 10:12 AM

The latest version of the European treaty has been agreed in French and it's now with the translators.

The lawyers have been hammering out the exact wording to be used. We had expected the document a couple of weeks ago but apparently the British had quibbles. As far as I can see, they were pretty political rather than strictly technical, trying to pin down things that opponents of the treaty might leap upon. One was to do with the authority of the courts over domestic law and another about the status of "mixed" treaties, which could be considered under the banner of trade or foreign affairs.

There has been some irritation at the British behaviour and the says the British government should be well pleased. That may of course be all spin, designed to make it look as if Gordon's people have won another stunning victory over grudging foreign chaps.

All eyes will be on Gordon Brown for the next few days. The Westminster gossip about an early election is blowing hard in Brussels, with people wondering what the fallout will be. Some of my colleagues back in Blighty are adamant that if Brown goes to the country in the autumn, he will give in to demands for a referendum.

in a very pointed way ("Shame if any of your beautiful election strategy got smashed, ohh sorry Mr Brown what a pity!") reports every story through the prism of its desire for a referendum. This may have confused its readers but certainly the politicians got the message. It's one of those curiosities of life that the tabloids, a byword for giving the punters whatever they want, actually employ highly-skilled political teams, not so much to inform their readers as to demonstrate the power of the editors and owners.

Mr Brown will draw his own conclusions. Politicians are surprisingly good at finding solutions to immediate problems while filing their consequences under "future". Certainly, an early election is the best chance the pro-referendum campaigners have got.

But I haven鈥檛 quite convinced myself. The government has put so much effort into that I don't quite believe it will do a U-turn. Labour holds a strong belief that when the Conservatives put Europe at the centre of a campaign they look mad and unelectable.

I鈥檓 not sure, with the right campaign, that this is true but it鈥檚 a strong perception in the Labour hierarchy, who still fall about in laughter at the thought of This time they think it would be "Save the Brown". An election victory would allow the reinvigorated PM to "do a Sarkozy" and claim that his victory put the matter to bed.

But he is not the only player in town. Mr Hague鈥檚 announcement that any future Conservative government would promise a referendum on any European treaty change, and indeed would make sure there was a legal trigger, is important. If there was a future Conservative government this would severely limit its room for manoeuvre and that is intentional. Other countries in the European Union would also know that it was pretty futile pressing for any more significant treaty changes, although I get the impression that even the most ardent lovers of internal structural debate have had their fill for the time being.

What of the other countries where a referendum is a possibility? I鈥檓 writing this on the road in the Baltics (almost literally, on a dark road back to Riga, finding out my touch-typing isn鈥檛 quite as good as I thought) so forgive me if the following titbits are not up the highest standard of 大象传媒 accuracy. I鈥檒l preface them in typical reporter fashion with 鈥淚 understand,鈥� usually a hint at an exclusive, but in this case simply the state of my understanding, even if incorrect.

The Dutch will debate both the treaty itself and a rather peculiar suggestion that the cabinet would ignore parliament even if it did vote for a referendum. They won鈥檛 vote until next Tuesday but it looks as though the Labour and Christian Union MPs will toe their party lines, which suggests strongly that there won鈥檛 be a referendum in the Netherlands.

But the Danes, who were waiting for the treaty to be approved by the leaders at the summit later this month may consider it earlier. It seems that the Conservative part of the coalition is putting its weight behind a referendum, despite one spokesperson suggesting that it would be idiocy.

It鈥檚 going to be an interesting few weeks, and for what it's worth, the Portuguese presidency doesn鈥檛 seem to think that the text will get a smooth ride at the summit.

UPDATE:

The has just issued a statement saying that its lawyers have come to an agreement that safeguards all of Britain's red lines on border control, policing and justice. Rather oddly, it adds that when the text is published in full it will be checked again to make sure it meets the criteria "the prime minister has insisted upon".

The pro-referendum think tank is predicting that if there is a referendum Gordon Brown could either snub the summit, have it delayed or engineer a row.

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