大象传媒

Poland sees a threat

• Mark Mardell
• 23 Oct 07, 11:41 AM

This is the second of three pieces I'm writing in the run-up to this week's EU-Russia summit, as I explain here.

The snub-nosed Russian-built fighter jet squats in the Polish woods, only partly obscured by the trees. It is not the spearhead of an invasion force but a military souvenir of a time when Poland was a key Soviet ally within the Warsaw pact.

Now Poland is in and the European Union, and there is growing friction between the old allies. The Mig sits near the front gates of an airbase which is at the centre of a row between Russia and Poland. The US plan for a or Son of Star Wars, has upset the Russians.

The US is adamant that the shield, a sophisticated link-up of radar and missile systems, is intended to catch missiles in mid-air if launched from places like Iran. But the plan is for the radar to go to the Czech Republic, and the missiles themselves, almost certainly, to this base in Redzikowo.

Light-aircraft club

The mayor of nearby Slubsk is disappointed that the base may be put to this use, rather than turned into a civilian airport and business centre. He鈥檚 less worried about the Russian attitude.

As we stand in front of gates of the base, emblazoned with a lightning-strike symbol, he tells me: "For many years we were in Russia or the Soviet Union鈥檚 sphere of influence, and they haven鈥檛 had long to get used to the change. They think the weapons could easily be fitted with nuclear warheads. Opponents here say the same. I think the concern is ungrounded. I hope it is. I want the Americans and Russians to reach an agreement. For us Poles it is important to have good relations with our neighbours, the Russians."

He then takes me to the site where he says the missiles would actually be stored. It鈥檚 part of the old airbase, now a pocket handkerchief airstrip rented out to a civilian club of light aircraft enthusiasts.

But the signs of its old purpose are clear. There are five massive hangars at the edge of the field, the size of mansions, their concrete bulk and massive metal doors camouflaged with zigzag slashes of black and olive drab paint.

Trees and bushes are planted along the top to disguise the site from the air. It may seem remarkable that we are allowed to film both here, and the outside of the functioning military base. But the decision to allow the media to photograph Polish bases was taken by a former defence minister, who pointed out that spy satellites can see far more than a TV camera.

Neo-cons

He is also the man who negotiated the outline of missile defence package with the Americans. He鈥檚 said to be close to Donald Rumsfeld and the neo-cons and is an enthusiast for the plan. Now an independent senator, Mr Sikorski defends the system that the Russians dislike so much.

"Russia has threatened to target European cities. That makes us feel very uncomfortable, and if anything, it increases our sympathy for the United States. Nato membership was quite controversial in Poland until Russia started to protest loudly, so if they are worried about this project, to threaten is not the way to go about it," he says.

"Russia has testy relations with most of its neighbours 鈥� there are economic boycotts against Georgia, against Ukraine, against Estonia, against Poland. We would like to have good relations with Russia 鈥� this is a very powerful and rich neighbour of ours. I think I don鈥檛 have to explain to the British people, when there are KGB-style poisonings in the streets of London, that we feel even more exposed to this kind of behaviour.

"So we value Nato, perhaps more than countries that don鈥檛 share a border with Russia. That鈥檚 why we treat the Polish-American relationship so seriously and that鈥檚 why we seriously consider American requests."

Buoyant Russia

Poland is seen by many in the EU as an awkward customer.

Their complaints about Russia, like their worries about Germany, are dismissed by some many as a paranoid hang-over from the past. But perhaps now some are taking notice of their experience.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, the European Union tended to have had a rather cosy relationship with a weak Russia, still experimenting with capitalism and democracy. Now the situation has altered, and so have some of the personnel. Germany鈥檚 former leader, Gerhard Schroeder, used to urge a kid-glove approach to Russia from the centre of the European Union, but not any more - and Angela Merkel is in charge in Berlin. The difference between Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy isn鈥檛 quite as stark, but it鈥檚 there.

Putin鈥檚 Russia is apparently more self-confident, unconcerned about causing offence, buoyed up by its gas and oil revenues. And perhaps critically, the European Union now has many members which have very direct experience of their big nextdoor neighbour.

The Czech Republic and Hungary saw their tentative movements to freedom crushed by Soviet troops. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania were swallowed up by the Russian empire. Some might say it鈥檚 not fair to equate the Soviet Union with Russia but few in the region would bother making the distinction. Particularly in Poland, which ceased to exist as a country for more than 100 years because of Russian (and Prussian) expansion, long before Lenin.

Symbol of domination

If some are cowed by Russian might, it鈥檚 not an attitude you come across much in Poland

At a busy Warsaw intersection by a major tram stop stands a war memorial, known as the four sleepers. Bronze statues, some four or five times larger than life, stand silent guard.

At the top of the monument, the figures are more dynamic, like immense versions of dramatically posed toy soldiers. One figure rushes forward holding a machine gun at waist height, another is charging with a levelled rifle and between them both the third solider holds his arm outstretched behind him, about to hurl a distinctive barrel shaped soviet grenade. As war memorials go, it鈥檚 both far more heroic and more impressive than the more sombre monuments in French or English villages.

But the problem is with the inscription, in both Polish and Russian. It reads: "Glory to the Soviet soldiers who gave their lives for Poland鈥檚 liberty and independence."

The Warsaw councillor Marek Makuch is campaigning to have it removed, even though a similar relocation of a memorial caused riots in Estonia early this year, and a bitter reaction from the Russian authorities.

As he looks at the monument, he tells me: "We are thinking about moving this monument here to the cemetery of Russian soldiers, because it鈥檚 a symbol of the domination of Soviets during and after World War II."

He鈥檚 dismissive of any Russian reaction. "They are living in some different world and they still think that Eastern Europe is some part of their dominion," he says.

Energy worries

Poland鈥檚 difficulties with Russia are fuelled by history but exacerbated the present. It may be ludicrous for politicians to describe plans from a pipeline to run from Russia to Berlin as a new version of the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, which secretly carved up half of Europe, but it鈥檚 probably true that Poland is being deliberately left out in the cold.

There have been problems with meat transiting through Poland in the past and now the Russians have banned a whole range of Polish products from frozen vegetables to something called fish flour.

Kryzsztof Bobinski of the Poland and the Union foundation, who used to work for the Economist, is a long-term observer of the Polish scene. He says: "Poland sees Russia as a resurgent threat, with Mr Putin at the head of the Russian state, and the Polish people are quite worried. It鈥檚 very interesting that some opinion polls were done in 1989, and then in 2006, and it showed that then Poles were not worried about Russia at all because it was not doing very well, and very worried about Germany because it had been reunited."

He goes on: "I don鈥檛 think Russia is a country that has come to terms with the fact that its frontiers have been pushed back, making it smaller than it was under the Tsars. Of course, the passing of the Soviet Union is of some regret for Mr Putin, and he has actually done various things in the past few years that would make even the most pro-Russian western European states think twice about what is really going on in Moscow.

"The business with energy supplies, the lack of security of energy supplies, the increasingly authoritarian state in Russia 鈥� it seems to be a historic continuum, which means we have to be very careful with Russia."

There are a growing number of countries that sound increasingly like Poland and their voices will be heard at the EU summit. But will they be listened to?

Solidarity

A senior politician from one EU country told me recently that it was a mistake not to see Russia as a European country, and implied that any approach must be based on sympathetic forbearance, not lecturing or demanding.

The veteran leader of the Solidarity movement, Lech Walesa, would not agree.

He told me: 鈥淎s Europe, as the European Union, we have to show more solidarity with each other. We all have a common interest and it鈥檚 only one interest 鈥� while Russia will want to win over individual countries. We cannot allow that.

"And tomorrow we will have similar problems with China. And they will also be trying to use individual countries and to dismantle our solidarity. And that鈥檚 why, in the name of peace and development, we have to show solidarity, not as states, but as a European continent.鈥�

We will see on Friday. Tomorrrow you can read my report from Lithuania, and Russia's ambassador to the EU will have his say.

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