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Heavyweights against the ropes

• Mark Mardell
• 19 Dec 07, 09:42 PM

Can the Germans be beaten at the European game?

Germany鈥檚 leader, Angela Merkel, has said are 鈥渘ot economically favourable鈥� and would be a burden on German industry.

The German car industry, which makes big luxury cars, is incandescent.

The carmakers don鈥檛 think the German middle classes would take, en masse, to the Smart car that I test drove the other day. For what it鈥檚 worth it doesn鈥檛 feel lightweight or flimsy. But you wouldn鈥檛 get many Christmas presents in the back.

Although European commissioners are not meant to put across the views of their country, they nearly always do when the game is big enough. And the German industry commissioner, spoke against the level of fines.

My first instinct was that if Germany opposes a move, it simply won鈥檛 happen. I haven鈥檛 really changed my mind but perhaps things aren鈥檛 quite straightforward.

Whether by accident or design, the commission has split the motor industry.

The producers of big cars, like the Germans, are on a different end of the see-saw to the French and Italian manufacturers. If others weigh in behind the Latin alliance, Germany will have to think carefully.

I鈥檓 told the German car industry itself is split and companies are quite capable of arguing against each other in private meetings with the commission.

Soon it will be "put up or shut up" time, as one insider put it. "Who stands up at meetings and says 鈥楤e more ambitious鈥�? Germany and the UK. Fine, it鈥檚 time to put them to the test."

It is true that Germany is in many ways a very green country, and environmentalism is much more deeply felt and deeply rooted than in Britain. The doesn鈥檛 sit very well with this.

My bet is that Mrs Merkel is a woman who chooses her words very carefully. 鈥淣ot economically favourable鈥� is a fact rather than an opinion, and quite reasonable as a holding statement.

Some say that she is personally in favour of the plan, and the challenge for her is how to sell it.

What of the proposal itself? Environmentalists although I suspect that is a continuation of their long-term disappointment rather than the genuine shock the carmakers got.

The targets haven鈥檛 changed from the beginning of the year, and haven鈥檛 taken into account the recommendations of the European Parliament, at least as far as I can see.

The aim is to cut the average car emission to 130g of carbon per kilometre driven in five years鈥� time. They would cut another 10g by what they call 鈥渢echnical鈥� means: whether different tyres or fuel.

What is new is the level of fines, and that is what took the motor manufacturers by surprise.

The commission equation, for those of you who don鈥檛 have to take off shoes and socks to do sums, is:

The number of grams of CO2 per kilometre by which the manufacturer exceeded the target X number of cars newly registered X excess emissions penalty for that year.

The last figure, the fine, climbs from 20 euros in 2012 to 96 euros for 2015.

It鈥檚 that 95 euro fine that really riles the Germans, so it will be interesting if it emerges unscathed, and what Mrs Merkel has to say when the leaders discuss this in March.

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On the waiting list

• Mark Mardell
• 19 Dec 07, 10:00 AM

The announcement on health has been cancelled. I can鈥檛 moan. Only the other day, I was complaining to someone about the way the European Commission didn鈥檛 co-ordinate its announcements, and how after a drought of directives we get them all coming along at once.

has, I鈥檓 told, decided that the focus needs to be on today鈥檚 announcement on carbon dioxide emissions, not on health. A spokesman says the plan will be put off until January for "purely agenda reasons".

Very sensible, if a bit last minute. Why on earth didn鈥檛 they make the decision weeks ago? I suspect this is not the whole story.

Insiders lead me to belive that Barroso wasn鈥檛 quite happy with the impact assessment: the document that looks at exactly what the new law would mean.

I get the impression he felt the figures weren鈥檛 watertight. My source says that the big difference between this commission and others is that they don鈥檛 just fling ideas out left right and centre: if a document goes on the table it's going to get through.

And that means having the best arguments.

Oh well. The Today programme led on the story this morning and the Ten O'Clock News ran my piece last night.

I suspect getting newsdesks to run the story again in the New Year might prove a bit difficult.

UPDATE:

The health directive has evidently fallen victim to left-wing commissioners and MEPs, who have been lobbying hard to prevent it benefiting the better-off.

They feel that those who can afford money up front and hotel bill and air flights will get an advantage over the rest. So, back to the drawing board.

But I think the commission also wants to have one big barney at a time and the extraordinary row over car emissions is first in the queue.

The commissioners meeting in college this morning will have their sleeves rolled up for a dust-up.

They just cannot agree basic figures about how to achieve the cutback in car emissions. The basic row is between the Germans, who make heavy cars, and the French and Italians, who go for lighter models.

The commission document at the moment has a big gap in it. There's a formula in it "a times x times b" where:
• x = the weight of the car
• a = er, we are not sure...
• b = well, that鈥檚 yet to be decided...

So pretty meaningless. Environmentalists say this means the policy is near worthless. Given the environment is President Barroso's defining mission, he won't like that verdict. More as I get it.

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