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Pence for president?

Mark Mardell | 21:26 UK time, Sunday, 19 September 2010

I mean no disrespect towards the Congressman for the sixth district of Indiana but I wouldn't give a penny for Pence's chances.

But Conservatives gathered in Washington this weekend liked the cut of his jib and want him to be the next US president.

A of the found 24% wanted Mike Pence as the Republican candidate in 2012.

Last year's poll winner Mike Huckabee got 22%, Mitt Romney 13%, Newt Gingrich 10% and Sarah Palin just 7%. Haley Barbour took a measly 1%.

I am not sure how influential or representative this Christian Conservative pressure group is but it attracts star speakers and a lot of national media attention. It is at the very least an indication of how open the race is to new names.

The search for a Republican candidate will be intense. In 2008, everyone thought of Barack Obama as a two-term president and that 2012 would be a dull contest. Now it looks as if he can be beaten, and much will hang on who the Republicans pick.

President Obama is already reminding people that this year's elections are not a referendum on him, but a choice between two alternatives. That will be even more true in 2012.

Some Democratic strategists like think the Tea Party movement's huge influence will save him and rule out more electable candidates.

They are perhaps whistling in the dark. The Republicans do, of course, run the danger of electing someone unable to attract middle of the road voters but it is not a simple equation.

That's why new characters without much baggage will attract attention. Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is apparently considering throwing his hat in the ring. Bobby Jindal may have made a disastrous speech answering Mr Obama's state of the union but he has handled the Gulf crisis with passion and commitment.

A lot can happen in the next months. After all, before I arrived on these shores I would have put a few pennies on Jon Huntsman or Mark Sandford. I would have lost my stake. The former was sent to China, in a smart move by Mr Obama, the latter found true love in South America and imploded in scandal.

The Republicans need what intelligence services call "a clean skin" and I suspect that means lots of jostling in the party ranks over the next few months.

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