What's Obama going to tell the UN?
If it's not hurting, it's not working. But does the US government really think the economic sanctions against Iran are painful enough to make them abandon what the West believes is a quest for nuclear weapons?
President Obama is expected to use his speech to the United Nations on Thursday to stress that it's not America that has a quarrel with Iran, it is the whole international community. According to one senior administration official he'll make it clear, as he did last year at the same time, that "the door is open to engagement".
"The door is open to them having a better relationship with the United States and with the international community," the official said. "However, in order to walk through that door, Iran is going to have to demonstrate its commitment to show its peaceful intent around its nuclear program and to meet its obligations to the international community."
It is almost certain that the Iranian president, who speaks the same day, will not walk through this door. But Mr Obama is presumably not planning to ramp up threats of something more robust than sanctions, given that he has just told a televised Town Hall-style meeting that: "We don't think that a war between Israel and Iran or military options would be the ideal way to solve this problem. But we are keeping all our options on the table."
So what's going on here? The US ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice says that the cost of the sanctions to Iran is very real ("concrete and meaningful" is what she actually said) and "it's beginning to be acknowledged even in the domestic political debate inside of Iran. We expect that these measures will increasingly influence the course that the Iranian decision-makers pursue."
That's a bit on the cryptic side, but it sounds as if she's suggesting the sanctions, which are aimed directly at the Revolutionary Guard and the elite, are hurting enough to cause ructions within the Iranian government. It sounds as if the US administration is expecting that factions within Iran's complex power structure will haul Ahmadinejad into line, or even off the stage.
I can't help wondering whether that's based on sound intelligence reports from inside Iran, or the audacity of hope.
I’m Mark Mardell, the ´óÏó´«Ã½'s North America editor. These are my reflections on American politics, some thoughts on being a Brit living in the USA, and who knows what else? My 
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