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The predictive-spell function on my mobile phone struggles with the word Tasmania. Whenever I try to tap out text messages extolling the many virtues of Australia's glorious island state it comes up instead with Tarmanga, which I presume must be a new brand of aftershave or one of Chelsea's latest signings.

Tasmanians, of course, are used to such indignities. Regularly they get left off the Australian map, despite their homeland's rich historic pedigree as the country's second oldest state.

But Australian psephologists would never make that mistake. Although it harbours only five parliamentary seats, Tasmania is a vital electoral background.

A quick word about the island's constituents. They live in one of the most beautiful corners of the planet, they breathe the world's cleanest air, and they all seem ludicrously fit and rosy-cheek healthy.

They have a tradition of environmental activism which stretches back four decades. They also have a track record of blocking green-unfriendly projects, most notably the controversial proposal to dam the Franklin River in the late-1970s and early-1980s.

Fittingly enough, "Tassie" was the birthplace of the world's first "green" party - the United Tasmania Group - which mounted the electoral barricades at the 1972 federal election.

Since then, it has been the cradle of modern Green movement. The leader of the Australian Greens, Bob Brown, who won election to the Senate in 1996, hails from, yes you've guessed it, Tasmania (although he was actually born in New South Wales).

Now, the politics of Tasmania is once again infused by a green-unfriendly project which has made many locals see red.

This one involves the in the Tamar Valley in northern Tasmania, a project which will not only be a blot on the landscape, according to protesters, but damages the area's marine biology, its air quality, its vineyards, and its tourism industry. Feeding the mill with timber will also mean dramatic changes in land use. Some of Australia's best farmland will become forestry.

The state government, which is controlled by Labor, has given the go-ahead to the mill, the island's biggest-ever private investment project. So, too, has the Howard government, arguing that the environmental safeguards will be the toughest in the world.

But that's not good enough for the members of TAP - Tasmanians Against the Pulp Mill, a grass roots campaign which includes some of the Australia's, and possibly the world's, most battle-hardened environmentalists who are expert at the art of mounting asymmetrical protests.

I caught up with a group of them in Launceston. With many in their fifties, sixties, and some even older, they could easily be mistaken for members of, say, a bridge club or amateur dramatics society. But rarely have I come across a group of such determined, well-informed or courteous protesters.

Opposition to the Franklin Dam contributed to the downfall of the government of the Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser, because the then Labor leader, Bob Hawke, campaigned strongly against it.

This time round, the politics of the pulp mill are more complicated, because Kevin Rudd supports the government's decision to give it the go-ahead. But the Liberal party probably has most to lose, having gained two seats from Labor at the last election (partly because of the perception that Mark Latham's forestry policy would cost jobs in the local logging industry).

The Liberal's most vulnerable MP is probably , who holds the seat of Bass, where the pulp mill is due to be constructed.

Mr Ferguson's campaign boasts two environmentally-friendly Smart Cars, emblazoned with his name and picture. But many of his constituents do no think his support for the pulp mill is anywhere near as intelligent.

So on election night, be sure to keep a watch on Tasmania, or Tarmanga, as my mobile still insists on calling it. It's the state where predicting the outcome is as confounding as predictive texting.

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