大象传媒

Stock-market mania

• Robert Peston
• 10 May 07, 11:06 AM

As I mentioned yesterday, I am a bit concerned about the frothiness of stock markets - and I have become a bit more anxious about the risk of a fully fledged rout after looking at what is happening in China.

As , the value of shares traded yesterday on Chinese stock markets exceeded the aggregated trading on all of Asia's other markets. And what's driving stock-market mania in China is that millions of individuals are removing their cash from low-yielding savings accounts and splurging on shares.

Now there are two ways of looking at the 300 per cent rise in Chinese share prices over the past couple of years The optimistic view is that these market values capture the reality of China's turbo-charged economy, which has become one of the world's biggest in record-breaking time and surely therefore deserves a stock market of equivalent weight.

However I find it hard to ignore the paltry profits generated by Chinese companies and their poor accounting standards. Listed Chinese companies are typically trading at prices equivalent to 50 times their earnings - which brings back disturbing memories of dotcom lunacy from the not-too-distant past.

The earnings of Chinese companies may one day live up to the expectations implicit in their share prices - but it could take rather longer than investors hope.

Anyway I hope you will excuse my eeyorish tendency to see the downside. But I made a mental note to go long of cash this morning when a cab driver advised me to pile into China because "it's a sure fire winner".

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