´óÏó´«Ã½

Hung parliament - is there really much to choose from between the track record of New Labour and the not so nasty Tory party. The real radicals are the LD's who may with Labour (and Brown gone)bring some sense and originality into economic management and take economic policy beyond the confused scribblings of the MPC. They might also stiffen the backbone in dealings with the pin striped bandits of the City!

I pray for a hung Parliament as the only realistic route to genuine electoral refom, more caution in fiscal policy and an end to two-party domination.

But don't hold your breath - a hung Parliament of itself means nothing. What it MAY bring is a bit less electoral dictatorship.

And we might end up with a stronger voice for the saner policies and more insightful analysis of Vince Cable and others.

Turkeys do not vote for Christmas (or Thanksgiving for that matter) shock horror. Actually they would if Rupert Murdoch told them to. The markets may balk at the prospect of a hung parliament - would they balk at a Government of National Reconstruction? There really is so little policy room to manoeuvre for an incoming government that Conservative, Labour or Liberal would not be radically different. You would see the roll out as much as possible of easy wins in tax raising and deficit reduction and when this proved to be insufficient we would see some painful choices finally made further out. Where does this leave democracy? Elected representatives unable to "be adventurous" in spelling out what needs to be done - we face the prospect of an election campaign of half truths, rumour and obfuscation. We will be expected to vote on what we guess maybe on the agenda - based on the 'brand' not the substance - as voting Turkeys that will most likely lead to a hung parliament.

Hi Stephanie,
With all due respect, I disagree with Morgan Stanley and your opinion about a hung parliament.
I think it would be a brilliant thing. It would mean that any coalition government would not be able ram thought unfriendly, reactionary legislation - something the current regime is inclined to do with alarming alacrity - and it means the wheels of government would slow down dramatically.
In one respect you may be right - we need a strong government to reduce the amount of red tape the current regime has entangled business in - but overall, the less interfering government is, the more private enterprise can thrive.
Bring on the hung parliament. Make all laws concentual and well thought out as opposed to intolerant and reactionary. UK Plc will thrive again.

I just wonder how close we actually are to a serious run on the pound?? Having watched The Queen on C4 this week, those days of double digit inflation, strikes and riots don't seem so far fetched any more and I'm no expert but guess this would be the likely fall out of sterling devaluation.

As Mr. Average Middle England with a young child, I have no idea whether I should be keeping money back for such a rainy day or whether the state will continue to bail me (and even more feckless borrowers) out whether I can really afford that new 4-bed detached place or not!

I do worry that the idea of borrowing our way out of debt has sent out totally the wrong message to Joe Public and we are on the way to creating an even worse asset bubble.

so what are they saying trust me I'm a conservative?

But they are playing their cards too close to be trusted in that equation the result is zero and I'm not playing a guessing game. For the last 15 years I've been wondering where's mine so unless someone shows some real strength I'm not believing anyone.

Isn't this just a great way of softening up the British public for what is going to happen next year anyway?

The pound will get slaughtered no matter who gets voted in. However, with the prospect of a hung parliament the political elite will point the finger at the public and say "well you lot voted for a hung parliament, you're the indecisive bunch, it's all your fault!"

Get ready for "re-negotiation day":

/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2009/11/cautious.html

The reds, blues and oranges are all socialists. If someone proposed a 50% cut in public spending and a balanced budget I would show some interest.

The bankers and investment firms own both parties so the results will really be rather meaningless. It is a strange world when the party leadership announces that the best way to win the election is to be dishonest with the public. I know they always are, but to provide this as an open strategy tells everyone that they simply do not matter. Vote for me, I will tell what I am going to do after the election. Approve banker bonuses will probably be first on the agenda. You infer that an advantage is necessary for things to get done. As both parties failed in their responsbilities to provide oversight of financial services the citizens may decide, and although the bankers never fully grasp the concept of democracy, that neither deserves control. Banks and financial institutions should be heavily taxed and strictly controled as they have proven that their primary purpose is to abuse the public trust and corrupt the governments.

Its an interesting thought to be thinking of the Conservatives New "Boy-Wonder" in George Osborne as some kind of Captain Courageous for what has amounted to being his Visions of things to come after the next General Election in his speech that he gave at this Years Conservative Party Comference.

That aside, we now learn that Senior Consevatives cannot be seen to be doing anything in advance of the next General Election that might spook, and panic the Market Place, and all those Rich Bankers whom are currently holding their hands out to take upwards of a million pounds each in Bonuses before Christmas.

To accommodate this decision the Conservatives therefore will not be setting out any of their future Policies to the main Share-Holders in these re-capitalised Banks - namely the General Tax-Payers and Voters, as to how bad things will be, for those amongst us whom have not had the fortune to recieve any eye-watering Bonuses that will be demanded by City Bankers, as for the rest of us mere mortals will indeed again find that under any future Conservative Administration things like everyday events will and can be far worse then things currently are under the present Labour Government.

"On budget matters, you might think foreign investors have little to fear from Vince Cable or Nick Clegg."

I think in reality the market is more concerned about Labour being the largest party in a coalition govt. Historically, Labour does not cut spending and has run up an incredible level of public debt over the past 12 years. They have also refused to come out with any actual plans to tackle the debt and instead resorted to putting a commitment in legislation to try and halve the deficit (with no commitment on debt) in an effort to reassure the market.

I really doubt our AAA debt rating would survive another 5 years of a Labour govt.

Re:11
They have also refused to come out with any actual plans to tackle the debt
----------------------------------------------------------------
This is the main problem facing any Party(ies), that will make up the next Government, for do you ie:

[1]. Cut Public expenditure and cause more Unemployment in both the Public, and the Sub-Contracted Private Sectors, which will cost us a fortune in State Unemployment Benefit payments or:

[2]. Do you keep to the current levels of over-all Government spending and run the clear risk of a further increase in our Public Debt.

Either way, there will be a price to pay, for also we don't have any real clear indications that there won't be any more Bank failures, either here in the UK or elsewhere around the World that may start another round of Global Recessions in either the Short, Medium or Longs terms ahead after the next General Election.

Debt has no politics, no religion, no favouritism and it will make no difference to it who wins the next election.

Whoever ‘wins’ will have to make a choice; either print more money or sack a lot public employees.

As regards the UK’s AAA rating:
The first is A is given because you pay back the capital.
The second A is given because you honour the interest payments
The third A is given because you don’t water down the value of the gilt by printing more money.

The third ‘A’ is long gone, but not admitted to.

......markets do what markets do. You can try to buy yourself a bit of time before a general election by borrowing a whole bunch of money to delay the inevitable, but in the end you wind up in the same place, only with a rather large weight attached to your ankles as you sink into the abyss. As Jim Callaghan said, you can't borrow your way out of recession. Gordon Brown knows this, but he also knows that he would definately have got kicked out of No10 if he had taken the decision to balance the books. By borrowing money to fund cash for clunkers and printing money to buy his own gilts, he has taken the view that he may be able to fool enough people for enough time to hang onto power. What he would do afterwards if he did is of course another matter, but don't make the mistake of thinking that he actually cares. Just another politician on the make.

I agree that the next party in power should be Conservative but for social rather than economic reasons I see the benefit of a hung parliament.

If a coalition, other parties would have to be savvy enough to realise that they too would have to act responsibly in getting the country back on track. Although the right sorts of noises have been coming from Vince Cable and Nick Clegg as to what needs to be done I do not have the same confidence in the others.

Because painful cuts and tax rises are only two of the harch measures required it will be much easier for the people to accept if there is an overall consensus from the political parties. Perhaps they should already be sounding out each other now ready for such a possibility.

There is no way of having a smooth transition this time from one government to another. Quite the opposite for there are too many unknowns awaiting the new administration.

If a possible coalition was already in place with a plan of what they intended to do to calm the markets and how they would take on the social aftermath of cutbacks perhaps we would all feel a lot more confident and the predictions of Morgan Stanley could be averted.

Is it too much to ask or has sanity gone completely out of the window.

Stephanie, what would a successful vote on Scottish independence do to the UK credit rating ?

re: 14

"Markets do what Markets do"

Correct, but so do Politicians do what Politicians do, and they are ALL on the make barr none, and NOT just in the Case of Gordon Brown as it doe's not take anyone without a University Degree to work out that David Cameron is not in anyway beyond the pale to be on the make if he is also given half a chance, by Voters.

The recent Expenses scandle which is yet to be cleared up is a real Prime example, Duck-Ponds, Moats and all.

Re:15

Firstly, No your reasoning put to any ordinary person is not to much to ask, but your idea if put inturn to all the Political Parties would involve a cancellation of the next General Election and the set up of a Government of National Unity, until such time that the current UK economic "Crisis" is over, which in itself would have to be by agreement.

Also, this idea in itself would have all the Political Party Leaders falling out with each other as to what in any combined way will be the best way forward, for can you picture Brown, Cameron and Clegg agreeing upon ALL matters of State about every detail of each Government Department with regards to Government expenditure in Public.

Dream-On.

Although, I think each party is honestly trying to reach out for their core vote, I can't say I am impressed by any of the leaders and would welcome a Hung parliament and coalition government to resolve many of the problems facing a new government. Brown is often too reserved and falls down on his communication, Cameron is a good at PR but the team around him his weak in my opinion with older statesmen like Ken Clarke talking more sense than George Osborne. Clegg often doesn't think things through and Vince Cable has spoken more sense than many in the last year.

15. At 3:44pm on 03 Dec 2009, virtualsilverlady wrote:
I agree that the next party in power should be Conservative but for social rather than economic reasons I see the benefit of a hung parliament.

I agree with the concept of a hung parliament, a long drop on short rope for the lot of 'em.

Why this panic over a hung parliament ? Germany existed for a full term with the two main parties in coalition ! This was the equivalent of Labour and Conservatives in a coalition goverment. They survived.

Re:21.
The Political Parties at Westminster cannot appear together in being able to currently resolve the issues surrounding their Expenses Claims which effects them ALL, while today un-united, so what makes anyone think that some of these same MPs' by being as thick as theives in some form of joint coalition Government will some how alter each their errors of their ways of the past, and bring out the best in them in some form of all singing and dancing Coalition?

For, they are all currently fiddling while the UK burns, along with the Rich Rip-Off Bankers and their Bonuses.

18 Londonharris

I do get your point but the voters will decide the outcome.

20 Dempster

I thought that was very funny. Made me laugh anyway

Morgan Stanley did not say anything a reasonably informed person could not agree with.

I recall Harold Wilson in the first election in 1964 selling the economy short for all it was worth and only ending up with a tiny majority, then finding when he had a better majority after the 1966 election that in 1967 he had to devalue the pound; but of course not the pound in our pockets. This scenario is the complete opposite of now and makes me wonder what an Opposition Labour Party would be doing now if it was the Conservatives who had sunk the economy.

The big issue for the election will be the public deficit. The deficit is huge and whoever wins the election there will be big cuts in spending to follow. The idea that the next election will not be based on this harsh reality is a bit simplistic. There will be a debate, it will be harsh and probably in the last week of campaigning. Whilst we don't yet know who will win we all know that Labour will lose. How much they will lose by will perhaps be the most interesting aspect of the entire election for politics and the future of the public sector.

The recent opinion polls show just what a short memory the voting public has. They really think we're on the road to recovery.

Actually what has happened is that Gordon (or Darling) has managed to reinflate the bursting bubbles (and you have to give them credit for this - I didn't think it was even remotely possible). But what it has taken is simply astronomical amounts of money, part borrowed from the future and part conjured up out of thin air.

The current political situation is a bit like having gangrene in your foot. Three doctors turn up. The one in the red tie says "We just need to get you back on your feet again and with a bit of exercise things will pick up". The one in the blue tie says "I'm sorry but amputation is the only answer, but you'll probably lose only one or two toes". The one in the yellow tie says "It will mean amputation - if you've got any money, it's going to cost you, but if not we can do it for free". Only trouble is you know he's going to cut the wrong foot off.

Which would you choose?

I think my choice is the one in the red tie - even though I'm pretty sure he's being too optimistic. On the one hand there's just an outside chance he's right, but on the other hand, it will soon be obvious to everyone that he was wrong and we'll get a proper doctor in from the IMF who will dispassionately do what needs to be done.

16. Great question.

Negotiating how much share of the debt the Scots and the rest of the UK gets would be fun as well! Maybe it would be proportioned on the amount spent per capita, but I expect not some how.

"Pity - that won't be much comfort to any of them if they wake up after polling day with no overall control."

And the sound of jets flying off from the major airports as investors depart in droves !! Britain will be rated a basket case and great fun will be had by all in the following years !!

Meanwhile, other jets will be disgorging legions of IMF Stormtroopers to enforce the conditions of their loan(s).

Hung parliaments, you gotta love them !!

#24 stanilic. If only it were so, but Harold Wilson and his ilk are dead and gone. This is the modern world and new ways of understanding are required.

There will be no debate. Some people will tell some lies and some other people wil tell some different lies.

Consider Afghanistan: How much is being spent there and for what purpose? There is no basis in fact to suppose that our commitment in Afghanistan reduces the threat of attack in the UK. There are plenty of reasons to assume the opposite as that would accord with sustantially all informed intelligence assessments. Why did Rumsfeld efectively order US/UK forces to cease their attack on Bin Laden?

Where is the debate? There are only lies piled on top of more lies.

Why does the RBS board threaten to resign on mass if approval to pay bonuses is denied by the controlling shareholder? Why does the IMF estimate that bank losses are so far only 50% disclosed, yet the controlling shareholder does nothing to compel RBS to reveal its true losses. If they did so then the RBS board would be revealed for the criminal charlatans that they are.

Where is the debate? Who is proposing to investigate bankers for malfeasance, fraud, embezzlement, and creating false markets. The answer is no-one and there is no debate as to why this should be the case.

Who cares who wins a British election? The whole process is a fraud and a charade and no-one with a grain of humanity would dignify any member of the political classes by partaking in their ritualistic charade.

The outcome is known - the winners wll be liars, cheats and incompetents, and the losers will be the mass of the population.

Public spending cuts are oh so last season. The lunatics have taken over the asylum, there is no intention of paying back the debt. The feet of the madmen have the accelerator pressed to the floor, and its full speed ahead to oblivion. Sure as the vehicle loses some stability as the speed increases some passengers will be thrown off - but so what? It´s not as though there is any destination to aim for.

You sound smart enough to know these things - and should stop partaking in their puerile games.

#16 "...what would a successful vote on Scottish independence do to the UK credit rating ?"

Instant improvement !! We will have the excuse of handing over/returning all things Scottish back to them. HBOS toxic "assets", RBS dodgy loans, etc. !! Hooray !!

#20 "I agree with the concept of a hung parliament, a long drop on short rope for the lot of 'em."

Can you wait until I have my stall set up, please ?? I'll sell hot-dogs, hamburgers, samosas and spring rolls and soft drinks as well !! Make it a great day for family outings so the young ones are taught that it doesn't pay to lie to the people !!

#21 "Why this panic over a hung parliament ? Germany existed for a full term with the two main parties in coalition ! This was the equivalent of Labour and Conservatives in a coalition goverment. They survived."

Yeah but the one in charge was Frau Nein and she can be, was and still is very thoughtful and decisive when she wants to !! None of the waffling or knee-jerk decisions !!

#28 "If they did so then the RBS board would be revealed for the criminal charlatans that they are."

Well, HBOS was revealed to be a "dead man walking", so what price RBS ??

29. ishkandar

does Scotland own the RBOS and HBOS ? and has it had all the profit generated in the past from the dodgy dealings ?

I've been silent for some time. About time I had another rant!

We need some honesty from both main parties. We need to know the details of their get-well-programmes. The Labour Party has not yet admitted that our illness could be terminal and is proposing to delay treatment. Meanwhile the Conservative Party is clearly anxious to start treatment as soon as possible. When the date of the election is finally established, I hope the parties will set out clearly what they intend to do.

My vote will go to the party that sets out a remedy that will get us back to full health in the shortest possible time, even if this means retiring to bed briefly in the short term. I think this would be much better than bravely trying to keep going but never really recovering.

Come on, Dave, go for a get-well-in-12-months-programme. Why not try and match this Gordon?

Cut spending, reduce debt.

IF there is a hung Parliament, I believe that the Government will be Labour/Lib-Dem Coalition. If I were a Tory, I'd be delighted, (in fact even as a non-tory I might be delighted if it meant Cameron being ousted) because I also believe there are only 2 scenarios

1. Brown and Labour/Lib-Dems have to cut like there is no tomorrow (and then for Labour, there won't be) and I imagine that within months the Coalition would fall and we may have another election. This time I bet the Tories would win, especially if 'Heir to Blair' Cameron had gone.

or

2. The Coalition fail to cut, then, as others have mentioned in troop the IMF and boy will they cut! Then within months, Labour will be toast as the Coalition fails and the Tories get in.

Both of those scenarios mean there will be much hardship. However, by the second election no one, other than the dyed in the wool socialists, would be in any doubt as to how serious the mess Labour have got us into , and that it has to be sorted, and I believe they will accept the Tories doing the sorting rather than Labour.

Still, I live in hope that the electorate will remember the expenses scandal and we can kick out loads, if not all sitting MPs, and maybe we'll get a new lot more capable, and if not so, at least more honest? So we may not have to worry about a hung parliament after all.

#33 "does Scotland own the RBOS and HBOS ? and has it had all the profit generated in the past from the dodgy dealings ?"

Both had their "HQ" operations in Scotland until they were taken over. Much of their central admin. staff were also there and were recruited locally. But most importantly, the SNP claimed that (1) they were Scottish, (2) that they were to lead Scotland into becoming a "World-class financial centre" and (3) when redundancies were seen to be necessary, they were requested to be made "outside their home territory" (i.e. outside Scotland) !! Finally, they printed and issued Scottish bank notes !!

They can't be Scottish when times were good and *NOT* Scottish when times were bad !!

Before we can get to any stage whereby after the next General Election we may have a Hung-Parliament we will have to see many Voters of ALL colours breaking their habits some of a life-time, in view that to achieve such an outcome would require at the least tatical voting all the way to a sort of Social Engineering in outcome.

This would require and involve a much larger number of Independents candidates being returned to Parliament many of whom I would assume would be actively calling for an Hung-Parliament.

With the News today that the Steelmakers Corus are set to lay off 1,700 of its Workforce by January 2010, along with the expection that these Steel Plants will be close down after a period of moth-balling, then as we appear to be losing even more in the way of manufacturing Jobs we have to ask ourselves just where will any Jobs in the future be found once there are signs of any prevailing up-turn in not just the British economy, but also in the World economy at-large.

If we look across the Pond at the USA the biggest challange facing the Obama administration is the need to create "NEW" Full Time employment places for those Un-employed in the United States.

Likewise here in the U.K. we need to see that our Government is seeking out New ways to get un-employment figures reduced by the means also of Job creation. However the is far to easily said than done, for even if we can come up with ideas to create Employment, that doe's not automatically translate into Productivity that in any Medium to Long term will see us return to better Day's when our Economy was booming on the backs of rising Exports, for if anything we have placed far to much weight on "Making Capital" from invisable Banking by gamballing upon World Markets in the City of London and Edinburgh, which has seen us delivered in the past large rewards for Bankers, Investors and in Tax-Revenue prior to the Recession.

My feeling is that while this trend is set to continue, this approach alone will not be anywhere near enough in the future to once again substain Growth in the Economy, as we will be seeing New emerging Markets in such places such as China and other once Third-World economies which will over-take the United Kingdom in the race for the much needed Re-newed inward Growth, and Export stakes.