Election special: but no, not that one ...
I shall shortly be on my way to the US, weather permitting, to taste for myself the full delights of the presidential election campaign as it enters what may well be its most crucial week.
But before I leave, winter woollies safely packed, I thought I should draw your attention to another election which may well have some impact on the way the rest of 2008 unfolds. On Sunday, the people of Serbia will be voting in the second round of their presidential election 鈥 and what they decide could have a profound influence on the future of the Balkans.
Remember the Balkans? The wars in Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo? It was less than 15 years ago, when a corner of Europe was in flames 鈥 tens of thousands of people were killed, injured and traumatised, hundreds of thousands fled their homes in terror.
So on Sunday the people of Serbia have a choice, and as Serbia has long been the dominant power in this part of Europe, their neighbours are watching anxiously. The candidates are Boris Tadic, the incumbent (usually described as 鈥減ro-Western, liberal鈥, in other words the good guy), and Tomislav Nikolic (鈥減ro-Russian nationalist鈥, in other words, the bad guy).
And if Mr Nikolic wins on Sunday, it鈥檚 more than likely that within just a few days, the province of Kosovo will unilaterally declare its independence from Serbia and mark the beginning of a new and dangerous chapter in Balkan history.
Remember Kosovo? (I鈥檝e written about it before, here , here, and here.) To the Serbs, it is the cradle of their history and their culture, home to some of the most beautiful Serbian Orthodox medieval monasteries (I have visited some of them, and, believe me, they are very beautiful). But the vast majority of the people who live there now are ethnic Albanians, and to them Serbia is a menacing threat, an oppressor whose shackles were broken with the help of NATO back in 1999 and which must now be hurled away once and for all.
The US, the UK and many other EU nations believe independence is the only answer for Kosovo. And if Mr Nikolic is to be the next Serbian president, I suspect they鈥檒l see little point in pressuring Kosovo鈥檚 leaders to delay their declaration of independence. If it鈥檚 Mr Tadic, on the other hand, they may still try to slow things down a bit, in the hope that by continuing to dangle the prospect of eventual EU membership, they may be able to gain some extra leverage.
Here鈥檚 what might happen as soon as Kosovo declares independence: the Serb minority might pack their bags and either huddle in the few remaining Serb enclaves or flee into Serbia 鈥減roper鈥. The Serb authorities might halt all trade across the 鈥渇rontier鈥 with a territory they will regard as a secessionist province and maybe even cut off energy supplies. Moscow will react with fury against what it will call a Western plot to destabilise the region.
The US and some EU nations 鈥 the UK, France and Germany 鈥 will immediately recognise the new 鈥渘ation鈥. Others 鈥 Greece, Romania, Slovakia 鈥 will wait a bit. Kosovo鈥檚 leaders will ask the UN to recognise them as a new member state; Russia will block the application.
And so the stage will be set for many months of tension, uncertainty, fear and anger. Not an enticing prospect.
I hope to be on air from the US next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday 鈥 and I鈥檒l try to blog as I go.
Hey, guys, if a portion of the UK filled with Muslims and then declares independence we'd be none too happy. Why would a proud nation like Serbia be any different?
Especially when we know the real reason for a lot of this trouble was to further threaten Russia straight after it had abandoned Communism?
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