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World Economic Forum 2007

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The shape of the debate

  • Richard Sambrook
  • 25 Jan 07, 05:12 PM

Almost half way through it's clear that Climate Change, the Global Economy and the impact of the Internet are, so far, the dominant themes.

Some points of interest on climate change:
In a broadcast debate the audience were asked to vote on three motions.
1. "Nuclear energy and clean coal are the only viable alternatives to oil." 73 percent voted against - I wouldn't have predicted that from this audience.
2. "Markets are superior to regulation in leading corporations towards "greener" solutions" Again, the CEOs and business leaders voted 71 per cent against - and surprisingly in favour of regulation.
3. "A global Carbon Tax will do more harm than good".
This is the view of many airlines for example, but again the Davos audience voted against, and in favour of tax, by 64 per cent.

Some notes from other climate sessions:
One opened saying President Bush's acknowledgement that climate change is a serious challenge will change world dynamics and the legal structure being built to address the problem of emissions. Some major US companies were now saying a 30% reduction in greenhouse gases within 15 years was achievable. It was said 80 per cent of executives in the US power industry now recognise we will live in a carbon-constrained world in the future.

The debate has certainly moved. There are other risks lurking - another session predicted that mass migration and desertification will lead to more conflicts.

Set against this, surprising optimism about the global economy. Emerging markets now constitute half of the world economy. China is seen as increasingly important in terms of rising consumption. China and India, the economists agree, will steer the world economy and demographic changes will redistribute economic might to Asia, making the world a very different place in 20 years. And with change on that scale inevitably comes political uncertainty.

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Comments   Post your comment

  • 1.
  • At 10:23 PM on 25 Jan 2007,
  • HOLZ wrote:

Emerging markets do not represent half of the global economy.

Triade (US + UE + Japan) represent 75% of world GDP, 90% of patents!!

In 2037 will China have the same GDP as the EU but with 1,5 billion citizens but EU with only 0,4!!

  • 2.
  • At 01:24 AM on 26 Jan 2007,
  • Andros wrote:

Wonderful world we are leaving to our children, isn't it?
What an exciting place its becoming, though...

  • 3.
  • At 07:38 AM on 26 Jan 2007,
  • Matt wrote:

I'm excited to see that some folks in Davos are really getting it: Clean coal? This is an oxymoron. But regulation and a carbon tax do have a role to play in the urgent need to curb climate change. Market incentives? Great...but let's not stop there. We don't all have to get rich to slow climate change. Finally, while it is exciting to consider a paradigm shift resulting from the abundance of emerging markets, I hope the inevitable sharp increase in consumption (and thus emissions) is deeply considered as the 'powers that be' continue their climate change wrangling. Emerging markets and industrialized countries alike need to address climate change now.

  • 4.
  • At 12:58 PM on 26 Jan 2007,
  • Geoff wrote:

Time is of the essence. One tonne of CO2 saved this year will probably also be saved for each of the next 10 years and beyond. If that tonne is not first saved for 10 years, then that's 10 extra tonnes which will have gone into the atmosphere.

What a difference a year makes. Today when I google references to Davos and Climate within the 大象传媒's web, I get over 550 returns. Ironically, citizens networks around the world were stirred to connect a 5 year Passports to Sustainability programme of meetings partly because public broadcasters were not giving climate enough attention. But then, on behalf of all children, we make high demands. We want anyone doing heroic work for climate like Wangari Maathai to get just as much news as David Beckham or Olympics gold medal winners. Let's hope by 2012, the world can celebrate with London on both fronts: The Olympics and having turned the tide on exponentially rising carbon emissions.

  • 6.
  • At 04:11 PM on 27 Jan 2007,
  • pablo wrote:

HOLZ, Your numbers might refer to GDP measured at current exchange rates and because of this they are not the most appropriate for the comparison.
China is already the world's second economy when measured on a purchasing-parity power basis, contributing about 15% of global GDP (the figure for number 1, the US, is close to 22%).
The US + EU + Japan represent 49% of world GDP at PPP and 68% of it at current exchange rates.
You can check this at

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