大象传媒

Justin Rowlatt will be reporting on the human and economic cost of the crisis.

And Susan Watts will be examining the science of forecasting and just how difficult - or easy - it is to foresee and prepare for this kind of weather event.

Just, please, let there be no sensationalising or wild claiming for events that, whatever else can surely not be unprecedented, as I keep hearing, when they have happened before.

If we are running out of grit, or gas then, with what we are told we're facing in the future I am more interested in those with sensible contingencies in mind to cope as opposed to a bunch of airy excuses as to why they couldn't be expected to know what was going to happen. Not after what has been sucked into various green holes already.

Even 1 in 1,000 year floods suggest that another flood might well be in the offing at some point, from 1 to 1,000 years.

Equally I do recall sledding as my boys enjoyed today.



1962-63: A famous winter.Very cold. Mid November saw snow in the South West. Late December (commensing Boxing Day: the start of the bitter cold) saw blizzards in Southern England. London had 12 inches of drifting snow. January and February had widespread falls, especially Devon and North East England with 2ft.

As did, apparently, my great, great ancestors:

1794-95: Exceptionally severe winter. The cold beginning on Christmas Eve, and lasting until late March, with a few temporary breaks. January was particularly cold, with a CET of 0.8c. It was the coldest January in the instrumental era, beginning 1659. The Severn and The Thames froze, and 'Frost Fairs' started up again. An extremely bitter temperature of -21c was recorded in London, on January 25th. In early February, there was a rapid, but only temporary thaw. Flooding ensued. The severe cold returned slightly later (mid February) and continued well into March. There were many recorded snow events.

I'll concede long term trending and am up for erring on caution but, please, try and keep the hyperbole in check.

the eu countries have 120 days supply of gas. we have 11. the govt have used the mantra 'the market will solve the problem' as an excuse to do nothing. further because we have no storage the eu energy companies buy uk gas in the summer at the cheap price then store it till the winter then sell it back to us at the winter price.

the govt are bad guardians of the british people and its welfare.

nothing on iraq inquiry?

every day we get revelations of more govt incompetence. One quote by a general from tuesday session on the demands for iraq from no10 was the dry quip 'what appears on powerpoint may not be deliverable on earth'.

Jaunty #2

Its not really fair to blame the " market " entirely for the lack of gas storage capacity in the UK, various companies have tried to set up adequate cheap gas storage. Just in the north west ( 1 in Cheshire and one on the Fylde ) two applications have been made to store gas in old salt workings. However, each time the high profile eco-fascist groups moved in and organized effective local campaigns in opposition based on alleged ( perhaps bogus ) safety concerns. The government could have stepped in and approved said plans but remained silent.

As for predicting the weather, Piers Corbyn and his Weather Action team predicted the current cold snap 6 months ago based on sun spot observations. The Met Office are totally useless, all they are interested in is attempting to portray further global warming to appease their quasi-religion. Perhaps time to sack everyone in the Met Office and use public funds to get a free to the general public accurate set of forecasts from Weather Action ?

John Ketley was on News 24 reckoning that the cold weather was down to which way the wind was blowing, but how do you expect to model that. As everyday passes the evidence for the climate change scam looks thinner, just as Anne Winterton pointed out in yesterday's PMQs. Of course all the brain dead would be eco-fascists on the Labour benches broke out laughing. Perhaps the boot will be on the other foot in a couple of years time ?

/blogs/newsnight/fromthewebteam/2010/01/wednesday_6_january_2010_the_p.html

I want to know where I go to pre-book a repeat of the current stable (three weeks and counting) ridge of high pressure over me round about mid May.

Late enough to be of use, early enough to thwart the dreaded Midge.



ON a more serious note...........


WHAT do we think would happen in the Real (as opposed to Economic) world if 80%+ of the population shut down and took a sicky for a week.

We didn't shop, drive, seek entertainment,
Touched base with our families and neighburs, didn't do pointless jobs

WHO and WHAT is really essential for life to be sustained?

#4 Brossen

The Met office said it was going to be a barbecue summer. It wasn't because the jet stream was running lower than expected. We got continual warm moist air off the Atlantic. Does anyone remember some flooding in Cumbria in November.

Now as the northern hemisphere starts to cool say December, an already low jetstream is going to move further south. So what would take it's place. Cold air from the Arctic.

Modelling: before you start turning on the super computers, it is always a good idea to examine the most simple premise otherwise you get lost in your giga and terra flops.

But there again we could always try a Google for:

Don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

Good timing on the posting BYT

#6 BYT

The cold now should reduce midge populations next along with many other pests and diseases that have been increasing due to mild winters.

Quite agree with your assessment of this duality between real and economic worlds, which society seems to decree we have to live in the false one.

This is the heart of all our problems. We live in the false inverted image (see optics) of reality. Quite simple when we understand it. This is why it makes not difference which leader or which party rules. As long as they believe the inverted image is reality, thing will always get worse.

When we look in the mirror and wave the image waves with the opposite. This is why our political parties do the wrong thing. They do the opposite of what should be done in reality. NN and the mainstream media also share their existence in this world of opposed reality.

So .... Ms Harmon and Mr Straw feel 鈥榝rozen out鈥� of ministerial decision making?

The old adage 鈥淟ife鈥檚 a ..... ( think female dog.) ......鈥� applies even more so in politics. If, perhaps, less time was given to personal agenda and more to national needs .....? Why does 鈥榦ut of touch鈥� spring to mind thinking of these two?


So .... 鈥� .... we are determined to win it (the election) under his Leadership ....鈥� ....(thinks) and then blood will really be drawn.

And this man wants the lease on Number Ten?

Sorry, come back when - and if - you learn the oath of integrity.


So .... Mr Hilton. .... Should the Nu Con鈥檚 poster not actually read ....

鈥淒on鈥檛 do as I do, etc etc.鈥�

Talking of which ....... Is not THE poster reminiscent of the image plastered over walls in the film and TV adaptions of 1984? Would the - contemporary - banner read ...

鈥淣u Con are watching you!鈥�

Suggestions on a postcard to .......

Incidentally ... The hoarding reads ... 鈥� We will cut the deficit, not the NHS.鈥�

Plenty of space there for other HMG Dept鈥檚 ... but the required text is noticeably missing.

Does this now come under 鈥業mplied Terms of Contract鈥�?

And are thus the Nu Cons actually making a commitment ...?

Answers on a postcard to ......

iraq inquiry

the absurd turn a round in staff that meant by the time uk staff have made contact with the relevant iraqs it was time for them to leave [so lose all the contacts] and for the self defeating process to be repeated over again was due to a health and safety limit on appointments. another quip was anyone who requested more time [as they all wanted] was 'clearly mad and had to be withdrawn'.

an amazing admission towards the end of 5th jan General Sir Nicholas Houghton and Vice Admiral Charles Style session when it was said failure of uk [nation building/security] in iraq was 'inevitable'. In the end it just became a matter of 'reputation' ie face saving.

the usa increasingly comes out as people with 'the right strategy' whereas the uk comes out as a friday night bingo player who's just realised he is playing no limits poker with billionaires.

4. i'm blaming the govt for the mess. gazprom and the italians [ie foreigners] have been making uk capacity.

national security should also be about defence in depth. stable robust societies do not drop out of the sky. they are built.

#8

Brightyangthing

By mistake on the previous page, rather than here, I responded to your #5 with a question. That's just in case you miss it.

mim

I have just found 3 new, to me at least, pieces of info regarding Jeremy Paxman:

To start off with on a positive reaction to a negative piece of misinformation, those who may be interested can learn from the link immediately below a moustachoed man's, representing BNP, having 'fun':



The other 2, definitely positive I would say, are to do with the forthcoming Penguin Celebrations whereby one of Jeremy's books, i.e. 'The English' is on their special list as well as Jeremy introducing the late John Mortimer's book 'Paradise Postponed':

[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]

mim

re. Susan Watts report

much mealy-mouthed hand wringing, all about 'how difficult to predict'.

fact is that in the UK no one appears to have heard about winter tyres (mandatory from November in many European countries), few appear to invest in decent insulation (too busy flying to Florida, I suppose), and, as J Rowlatt's piece showed, a state that has not built up resources for decades (even including Lord Hunt's beloved North Sea resources, gas storage capacity is less than 2/3's of France).

'Great' Britain -- what a joke.

Perhaps if Lord Adonis is genuine in his promise to ensure local authorities receive all the salt they desperately need ASAP, he needs to suspend the drivers hours regulations for the next couple of months. There is an historical precedent, the Tories once did it back in the 1980s when our country was in the grip of arctic conditions.

Furthermore, he needs to suspend the current gross vehicle weight limits regulations, allow up to 10% GVW above the plated weight ( as an allowance not a target). Things have improved since the 1980s with the introduction of weigh scales on loading shovels but the science is not perfect and takes far longer to load than a rough yet educated guess. Its pretty soul destroying to sit in a queue for a weighbridge and then be sent back to tip off a ton from a 30 or 40 ton gross load, then join the queue all over again. From the film footage it would appear that loading capacity is a key factor in creating the queues of lorries in Cheshire. The above measures would go a long way towards alleviating the current salt shortage situation.

#14 Apologies, Mods.

I suppose the link you've deleted is of a commercial nature. However, it can easily be found on research of the subject.

mim

Pathetically weak interview by Gavin Esler or the Met office mandarin. Shame he didnt take a leaf out the systematic interogation of the Met Office CEO by Andrew Neill on the Daily Politics yesterday ( watch this: )

#9

An interesting post, Roger.

One, I myself had a little electrical explosion this evening but have been able to deal with it without going all the way down to the electric box.

Two, re: your link on Lewis Carol's 'Through the Looking Glass'. As I have previously read the book itself, I have not the Wikipedia's entry that you have linked for us but instead have come up with the following:

While sitting on the floor propped up by my door
In front of me there are a few faces I see:
Miriam Makeba鈥檚 who suddenly died
A horse鈥檚 and a little Albinos boy鈥檚
鈥楽erving me鈥� as if through a looking glass
To muse and reflect on myself and life,
Africa and riding a horse or a bike,
Etcetera!

Should you have any specific questions regarding the faces I'm musing about, please do feel free to ask.

mim

What I found disappointing in the weather item on today's Newsnight was the lack of challenge to the interviewees. They were allowed to assert that climate change models were much more robust than weather prediction models and showed that 20th century temperature rises can only be explained in terms of CO2. This is simply not borne out. Temperatures now are not exceptional - Britain was 2 degrees warmer 1000 years ago, during the mediaeval warm period, until it ended with the "Little Ice Age" in the 14th century. So the hockeystick graph is quite wrong in itself. Little connexion has been found in core samples between CO2 levels and temperature - the only links that have been shown suggest temperature rises preceding CO2 rises by 200 to 1000 years (unsurprising, given that warmer climate means more vegetation, more animal life and so more CO2). Current levels of CO2 continue low (only at one other time in the last 600 million years have atmospheric CO2 levels been below 400 ppm), but some rise would possibly be predicted on the basis of the mediaeval warm period - now is the right time for more CO2 if higher temperatures lead to higher CO2, which is the only link with any evidential support.

Climate change models are not robust. Scientists' own reports include warnings against long-term reliance and explain that they are unable to allow for such factors as water vapour, ocean currents, cloud cover - climate stuff... The models all show that the oceans are not cooling enough at night to absorb water vapour (a greenhouse gas), thus trapping ever more of the Sun's heat in the atmosphere. But they are all contradicted by actual satellite data, which show that overnight ocean temperatures are fine and they are doing their job as a heat/vapour sink.

Why aren't these points put to supporters of the "anthropogenic CO2 is causing global warming" hypothesis?

Long range weather forecast.



Why does this fella always forcast the weather correctly. What are his methods. Mostly sunspot activity apparently. Some don't take him seriously, ie the sheeple at the 大象传媒, on account he is a global warmer denier.

大象传媒 is gonna make some savings with Ross waving the 大象传媒 goodbye. Please can the 大象传媒 now get rid of that other expensive inflated ego..Alan Yentob. He has expensive tastes that the rest of us are rather tired of paying for. Get rid.

cookieduck

iraq inquiry

listening to Simon McDonald evidence anyone would think iraq was a heroic success in a grand crusade? Maybe it was nerves that made him come across like a milliband clone?

maybe given that upon his appointment 'Political sources in Jerusalem were equally jubilant about the appointment. "It is a signal that Britain will continue its positive policy toward Israel," they said... it is not surprising the usual narrative [iraqis grateful, better place yada] he did give?



his praise of militarism as a foreign policy is quite disturbing. his evasion of straight questions was revealing. for me in this interview we come close to the engine mindset behind the foreign policy of wars without end. still as long as Jerusalem is jubilant that is all that matters?

curious those from the FO so far have come across as hostile witnesses determined to stick to a narrow narrative?

Re. Jonathan Ross

Guys - what shoddy journalism! The Ross debacle is not about money - it's about the loss of creative nerve at the 大象传媒. Not a single question to Yentob on this!

A MAGICAL CONVERGENCE

Uganda has a Minister for ETHICS and INTEGRITY. If Westminster had one it would be touch and go whether they died of overwork or shame.

It also transpires that at least one Ugandan Minister believes evil spirits exist. Now, to my mind, that is not a million miles from Barack Obama's assertion (Nobel speech) that there is EVIL in the world (so he has to turn his back on Ghandi and King).

While I am on dark forces: what a chilling similarity between Cameron's 'shadow', Hilton (think Carl Jung) and Tony's left-hand Demon, Alastair Campbell. The match too close for comfort when you see the immobile 'presence' with just the eyes, sweeping - sweeping, noting - noting. . .

Finally - still on dark forces: has anyone else noticed that Mandy walks about as if he has pooed his armpits? Now where does that come from? Westminster really does call them all (and in the darkness bind them).

ryanw #18

Perhaps Gavin Esler is just as institutionally useless as the Met Office, always gives people an easy ride on contentious subjects and is therefore probably more suited to the 大象传媒1 Muppet news than Newsnight ?

Opinion on Wossy, people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones !

Kev

last comment from the link you provided.

zardozcs (45 minutes ago) GBRIVORBIGUN锘� two months ago "The only time you can have stormy and snowy weather is when the jetstream tracks to the S of the UK which to be honest is very rare these days. Early indications indicate this winter shall be mild."

Eating your words now?


may I refer to comment #7 above. From the beginning of the summer the jet stream was running more south than expected by Met forecasts. The present conditions we have are only to be expected. Sometimes the problems is the insistence of clinging on to stuff derived from big budget computer simulations.

Snow, More Snow and It's Bitterly Cold

Well if I avoid the global warming subject and just talk about the UK weather , it does seem the has been and is currently very southerly , causing a low pressure pocket, which is sucking in cold air from the north, currently as far south as Spain.

There was a discussion a number of years ago if UK weather reports should start showing the jet-stream so the viewer gets a understanding of what shapes our local weather, sadly if I remember correctly the conclusion was that the viewers would not understand it.

Please start showing the jet-stream on UK weather reports , if I can pick up what it does , I can assure you so will the majority of the population.


Global Warming.

This may or may not have any relevance , but the sun did come out of a mid last year, you know part of it's not so exact 11 year weather cycle.

Off Topic

For anyone who likes space eye candy, the is worth a visit, enjoy.

Two people of authority talking for man made climate change but none for the problems with the science on which it is based and the ethical problems for the science community that it brings to the fore - why ?

Yentob should just keep quiet. Seriously, trying to defend Ross is offensive. You should wait a year and just accept how morally wrong it was.

Having read a most fascinating article on double agents, , I have come up with:

A STORY OF A DOUBLE AGENT

It is not yet quite 5
But DB has started to play with his tool,
Relying heavily on sheep and some fools
Allowing him devices to use,
With most of them electrically or electronically transmitted
To play with a lady by whom he is smitten.
I don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 love
But obsession, I鈥檇 say,
To prove to the world he鈥檚 winning the game.
When one is in love
One tries all one can
Not to hurt the beloved
And certainly not rape.
It looks like he鈥檚 confused of what he is after
While playing around with his chosen martyr.

Na zdorovye, as Russians would say before raising their vodkas

mim

To all those who have come down on Jonathan Ross with outright condemnation.

I have seen a few of Jonathan Ross' 大象传媒 sofa programmes and sometimes he seemed all right to me although the amount he was paid for it was quite out of proportion. And, of course, there were a few episodes where he obviously lost sense of dignity and purpose.

But, I don't think he was all stupid, etc. I remember seeing him on QI with Steven Fry whereby he displayed quickness of mind and quite wide ranging knowledge on all kinds of things. I was quite impressed with that.

One of the reasons I didn't watch his sofa programmes was that I'm not keen on forcefully hyped up atmosphere on chat shows and another is something to do with the problem I have with double agents manipulating the media.

mim

#21

cooking kevsey

Why don't you put yourself up for Alan Yentob's job or are you already being paid, one way or another, for your participation on these pages? What if you are told sooner or later 'get lost, we want rid of you' or do you think you're invincible?

Pay aside, apart from Graham Norton being overpaid in my view, Alan Yentob strikes me as a rather reasonable man and I thought he gave quite exhaustive answers to the questions asked by Gavin, who unfortunately disappointed me again but I'll leave it up to him to work out why.

mim

P.S. It's a shame that they didn't discuss in more detail how the 大象传媒 are planning to move on, etc

kevsey

While you鈥檙e at it, please do not forget and please do make sure
You keep for ladies your manly allure.
Are they all waiting for you and your tool
Or are you left sitting on your double short stool?

Once one is a fool they are always a fool
Go and dip your tool in Charlotte鈥檚, Sarah鈥檚 or Mandy鈥檚 whirlpool.

dipping cookie

You could also try a Jane or a Jean
I know that one Jane is quite keen on gin
As well as what you have promised them.
Good luck with the running of 'salty' harem.

#27 What an excellent idea Steve. I didn't even know it had been suggested that the jet stream be discussed in the weather forcast. I would like to know more about that, why do they think the public are too dumb to understand it?!

#35

Ecolizzy

Good luck and may I wish you hours of happiness during your research!

mim

Steve/Roger/Ecolizzy

SUN (spots), SEA (currents) and SAIL. - ANECDOTAL

Was not sure whether to post this or not, but I shall anyway.

I am NO Scientist and get bogged down wading though claim and counter claim on weather/global and local.

But my husband is involved in work that requires him to send vessels and people into hostile environments and he NEEDS an understanding of forward weather systems to this safely and in timely economically sound manner.

In Mid July we spent 10 days on a yacht off west coast of Scotland. With the benefit of husbands (also a keen yachtsman) - AND one of the country's top yachting skippers and the Shipping forecasts on the hour - WE knew that the gulf stream was running substantially farther south from the 'norm'.

We also knew that we were 'entering' a period of quiet sun spot activity (which also means coming out of a high period - mid cycle of 11 years is highest - this borne out by NASA and other records of Aurora borealis activity.) The yatch goes out on charter so they sign up for various on line alerts for auroras and other phenomena. This I can bear out by sightings here where I live where we do get to see them from time to time.

All of these (facts) formed basis of many daily and long into the nightly discussions.

The weather pattern we sat in, most unusually were warm, wet and strong south/south easterly winds sweeping in day after day which severely curtailed ours and many others sailing plans. Outer Hebrides bit the dust - but sititng storm bound in Arisaig bay watching 'Local Hero' on DVD I shall not complain about - save no 'lights'!!

The people drawing the conclussions on these patterns were NOT high flying SCIENTISTS - seeking glory and influence in their fields.

They were peolpe who NEEDED TO KNOW in very practical ways to ensure safety of large numbers of people.

Who would you trust?

COSMIC EYE CANDY (#27)

DUMB WEATHER (#35)

"why do they think the public are too dumb to understand it?!"

Same reason they choose girly presenters with 'delightful little lisps'.

Brightyangthing

Sounds really good, you and your husband sailing along the Scottish coast!

September and October also seemed exceptionally warm in 2009, with them being the most beautiful weather and colour wise in my lifetime, or at least since coming to this country in 1978.

mim

#39 Same reason they choose girly presenters with 'delightful little lisps'.

Have to agree there Barrie! Our southern 大象传媒 news has a plethara of these sexy girls, but none of them are at work, (perhaps snowed in)
and we have the wonderful plain speaking, (although once famously wrong!) Micheal Fish, much more straightforward. It's the language I can't stand, we're going to get dolloped on, it's going to be toasty, or it's going to be a cheeky little wind or somesuch.

#29 addendum

To be honest, I'm more than surprised to have realised how childish some of the double agents are, leaving clues and traces behind them, boasting of their prowess or incredible intellect and educational abilities...

mim

#39 and 41

DUMB and DUMBER!

Time used to be when the 大象传媒 were famed (and feted) for using only trained meteorologists - (occasionaly with a lisp!) to present the weather forecasts.

Evidence if any were needed of the slow descent into the mire or 'entertain' at all costs - and Ess O Dee Educate and Inform.

As for Oct 15/16? 1987. I shall never forget.

Ocean~atmosphere interactions are responsible for shifts in weather patterns.

The northern polar region is currently colder than usual; the equatorial Pacific is warmer than usual (see below) which is producing a clash of airstreams across the Northern Hemisphere.

An atmospheric pattern has been developing over the Arctic Circle region that flushes cold air away from the North Pole and toward the mid-latitudes (where we live).
This pattern, known as 鈥榟igh-latitude blocking鈥� (also known as the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, or -AO) is essentially a large area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere over far northern latitudes.

The high pressure pushes air downwards; as that air nears the Earth's surface it's forced outwards and away, sending cold air toward us.

This high-latitude blocking pattern (-AO) was the strongest on record for a December - and is continuing. The pattern consists in fact of two blocking anti-cyclones:

The first is over Greenland and is preventing the usual warmer, damper westerly winds from reaching Europe across the Atlantic, by steering the high-altitude jet streams far to the south of Britain, leaving the country exposed to winds from Russia, Scandinavia and the Arctic Ocean.

The second anti-cyclone is the Siberian anti-cyclone that is over much of northern Eurasia and is supplying is much of this cold air to areas further south such as Western Europe. (Where we are.)

El Nino refers to warmer-than-normal waters in the central to eastern Pacific Ocean along the equator; it is the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Nino can be blamed for a very moist atmosphere that produces heavy precipitation in some regions.

El Nino conditions formed in the equatorial Pacific last year (2009) and still continue. The present El Nino is the strongest since that of the 2002-2003; at present the sea temperatures are above normal, the warmest for at least 12 years.

Warm air carries moisture and comes from the tropics/equator; cold air is denser and carries much less moisture and originates from our planet's poles.

Whenever cold dry air moves away from the poles it eventually encounters warm wet air moving pole-wards, away from the equator. When warm, moist air meets cold air condensation occurs and precipitation results; if the temperature is at-or-below zero then the precipitation falls as snow.

There鈥檚 a fuller explanation here:


The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole are also in phases that favour heavier than normal snowfall in East Asia and Northern America.
These ocean phases will sometime this year go out of synch with each other, so we鈥檙e unlikely to see a repeat of this hard winter next year.

As for Solar Minimum hypothesises.
The current minimum began in March 2006.
In 2008 there were no sunspots observed on 266 of the year's 366 days (73%).
To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days.
Yet last winter wasn鈥檛 a particularly harsh one, nor was that of 2007.
Solar activity actually gradually increased during 2009.


Any claimed relationship between solar minimums and cold winters doesn鈥檛 really stand up to closer scrutiny.

It鈥檚 also worth bearing in mind that it鈥檚 not cold everywhere worldwide. e.g. The town of Exmouth, in Western Australia, for example recorded record heat of 48.9 degrees C on the 2nd January 2010.

I am a psychologist with a PhD in environmental communication. I found Newsnights complete presentation of the weather topic rather confusing and disappointing.

The main issue here is not the randomness of the statistical data and whether it is worth having an expensive supercomputer. It is that the public and industry need information that they can interpret well enough to help them make practical decisions that can assist them in daily life.

The entire report and science presentation were unhelpful in this case as there seemed to be little understanding between the presenters and experts that statistical concepts such as probability, risk, means, distribution tails or even the word 'statistics', are very poorly understood by the public. The journalists and experts also did not seem to understand the need to work together to problem-solve how to present the information in a manner that is of practical use to the public.

Numeric/percentage and visual displays can work, if combined with other contextualising information and presented in a manner that the general public can clearly demonstrate works for them.

Dear 大象传媒, please realise this is not the same as ragging a politician over expenses: it is a problem of presenting complex information understood by experts, through media communicators for practical, decision-making use by others. Get some advice on science communication please!

regards
Gary

if climate is chaotic and unpredictable why are people using these same models to spend billions and demand things like climate justice? what justice is there in chaos?

probability is no different than to trading the markets.

at least they admit that climate data is dodgy. If dodgy then there no need for all this climate tax, carbon trading etc.

basically the patrician class think people who use complex computer games are too stupid to get in depth information through their tv. Mayhews London shows the average costermonger was capable dealing with of highly sophisticated information. Its modern discrimination against 'the public'. ie tv is run by arrogant patronising snob philosophy?


Rosswongagate

does this mean news can now have those 1000 investigative journalists? more public service in that?
isn't it time to look at those 100k executive pensions?
given it is tax funded then all wages should be 'transparent' otherwise its just a charter for unchecked excess?

Toasty or cheeky? Which one do you like, Lizzy?
Dizzy and fizzy, or breezy and fibby?
As far as I see you鈥檙e going with cheeky,
Breezy and fibby rather than fizzy.
Hope you have fun without the fizzy
With Barrie and Stevie, Cookie and Jaunty!
Whether you like me or whether you don鈥檛
I don鈥檛 bear you grudges on any such point.
Not you, personally really, as long as you Lizzy
Don鈥檛 do anything too crazy or silly
With regard to the kids as well as their family
Which comprises of both sides, goes without saying,
Avoiding imposing on them
Pain and yet more suffering.

mim

P.S. The last night is not perfect rhythm wise but I wanted to keep the word 'suffering' in it, which I myself have done quite a bit of already on their behalf.

#47 addendum

And believe me or not, quite a bit of psychological anxiety on your behalf as well, Lizzy, especially while still at St George's. That's also why I carry on writing to you rather than pretend you don't exist. Your wellbeing, though I understand the circumstances are in no way easy for you, is vital to your kids' happiness. But so is their father's, who, although has been my main concern, I have never treated or thought of outside the family context.

mim

#44

SheffTim

Brilliant! Just what we needed in way of proper explanation. My postings on the subject have been completely disregarded so far. Well, until this morning at least.

mim

P.S. Does our calendar year have 366 or 356 days? I'm sure it's simply a typo, though.

mim you are a funny moppet, I'm ok, I don't have any problems with any of my family just very aged parents and father in law.

Two opposing views on Lord Careys comments.





Now how about a balanced discussion on NN with these two views!