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Tuesday 6 July 2010

Len Freeman | 11:03 UK time, Tuesday, 6 July 2010

Here is Emily with details of tonight's programme:

You can offend millions with a really good acronym. An American mate of mine came up with SWINE - (Scotland/Wales, Ireland, Northern England) to describe all the bits of the UK he declared economically unviable. Like I said, millions.

Tonight, we're looking at the trillion dollar club that became known as BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India and China - and asking if that block of countries could have the power now to pull us out of any future recession. They are united by the fact they are the only 'developing' countries with annual growth of $1 trillion - their trade figures are strong (and they trade with each other) and most importantly they have huge foreign exchange reserves.

If they were to set aside just one sixth of their reserves, they'd create a fund the size of the IMF. Will BRIC wipe the old economies off the slate? Or save us when we get into trouble? It would make tonight's thesis much neater if, say, Brazil were playing Italy in the World Cup semis this evening. But you can't have everything.

Also tonight, we'll have the latest on the search for suspected gunman Raoul Moat.

Plus a tentative meeting between Obama and Netanyahu. Things can't be as bad as last time - but how much honesty can there be this time round.

We revisit a leading opera star in South Africa - the first to sing Carmen in her native language.

And we hear from the Queen, who has decided to speak her mind. Well, a little bit.

Do join us at 10.30pm on ´óÏó´«Ã½ Two.

Emily

From earlier

Can the so called "Bric" countries help to save the world from another recession? Can they help rebalance world trade? As demand peters out in Europe, and even in the United States, will the huge emerging economies of China, India and Brazil begin to consume much more of their own and much more of the West's produce?

Our economics editor Paul Mason will examine the imbalances in the world economy and we hope to have a selection of guests to help us look into a crystal ball for what the future might hold.

We also have a special film by Tim Whewell on the Opera star Pauline Malefane - perhaps the greatest success story to have come out of the vast, impoverished South African township of Khayelitsha.

She has sung in theatres and concert halls from New York to Tokyo and today she is the joint founder of a Cape Town theatre company that aims to tap South Africa's rich choral tradition and create a new kind of accessible drama, breaking down barriers between South Africans.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    On the bric countries I would have thought that China's increased flexibility on the yuan would be helpful but in practice they still seem somewhat hostile to foreign manufacturers setting up in China. From what I can gather a US citizen was jailed for spying when the database on the Chinese oil industry was publicly available.

    But the yuan realistically priced would probably help fairer trade balances and that has to be a good thing.

    As more people are rightly lifted out of poverty that has to boost demand and that will help trade and the faltering economies.

    But to be a kill joy I assume that increased consumption will lead to greater CO2 emissions and greater competition for resources so that our short term joy may turn to medium term despair.

    The carbon shortfall has yet to kick in but may start to be felt over the next decade. We are behind in lining up renewable replacements in my lay view.

    Water will become a bigger and bigger issue and key resources such as lithium may lead to unseemly competition.

    All of the bric countries have big internal problems that could cause sudden dramatic upheaval.

    There are not enough people making policy for the long term benign interests of the world as a whole and I would cite uncontrolled human population growth as a key instance that highlights the dilemma between resource availability and human rights and freedoms.

    Naturally as there are still occasional far right posters on here I am clear that I not suggesting there is any racial basis to the need to look at population growth in the long term - it comes down to finite resources and a potentially infinite human population.

  • Comment number 2.

    These days when you see Labour/New Labour leaders express themselves its hard to judge whether they are detached from reality, cynical liars or believers of their own publicity.

    Jack Straw was complaining of "gerrymandering" yesterday over the even sized constituencies proposal. Yet his party were quite happy to go through the same process themselves except that their proposals led to a situation where 44,000 votes were needed on average for a Tory seat and 35,000 for a Labour one.

    Under PR or AV Plus these post election rituals and faux rages would not be needed if the percentage of the popular vote converted into seats.

    Its like the references to the Bullingdon club members of the cabinet. No mention that they are largely Oxbridge types and Blair was a public school boy. No mention of two jags Prescott and his croquet games nor of Blair with his many dozens of properties now sitting on a bank board.

    They spout off about ethical standards but lets see what Chilcott reports and what emerges of renditions and complicity in torture.

  • Comment number 3.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 4.

    Professor Jonathan Jones is senior scientist for The Sainsbury Laboratory:

    "Some say GM is high risk, but they cannot tell you what the risk is. Some say GM is causing deforestation in Brazil, even though if yields were less, more deforestation would be required to meet Chinese and European demand for animal feed."

    Some say there have been epic claims for GM that don't correspond to reality and there is no track record for comparison.

    We don't even wholly understand why bees are falling in large numbers with all of the implications there and now we should start tinkering with huge swathes of land and all kinds of gene changes.

    He also vaguely suggest GM crop yields have increased by 10% per year for a decade but I believe that there had been many reports of people dumping GM. In his view in a thousand years what will these plants look like as they will have yields many hundreds of times greater than today?

  • Comment number 5.

    I assume that the injunction the EHRC has on the BNP over taking on new members until it complies with the law of non-racial membership has a finite life.

    If they have not complied after a certain period do they get fined and what happens if they do not pay the fine?

  • Comment number 6.

  • Comment number 7.

    Home Office advice to gay asylum seekers criticised


    "Would we have asked a Jew to hide in the attic to avoid being sent to the concentration camps?"

    Alexandra McDowall UNHCR

    --------------------------------------------------

    What a strange analogy to make in this instance.

    What are the logical consequences of this case if the UK Supreme Court rules that the Home Office has to change its asylum entry requirements in this test case?

    Why is a Canadian citizen telling the UK Gov't who it can or can't let into the country?

    I guess some useful idiots are more more useful than others...especially if they work for the UNHCR!

  • Comment number 8.

    :p so that's what Gordon Brown's getting up to!

  • Comment number 9.

    #7

    idiots? watch out
    useful idiots? where have i seen before?

    what did I say earlier today?

    still in the black hole, are you? making the world go round your little .., you know what?

  • Comment number 10.

    SCIENCE (#6)

    The big Bang is a mathematical illusion, the Sun is electrically driven and Earth's climate runs to its own, undefined, rules.

    Science is now part of the POWER MATRIX of: money, commerce, religion and politics. Science is corrupted.





  • Comment number 11.



    prof brown?

    what a joke, in 'economics' while the country's been on the brink of total ruin?

    See the little westies on the left of the photo?

  • Comment number 12.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 13.

  • Comment number 14.

    #10

    'Science is corrupted' - say that again, Singie.

    But whose science, yours or all of it?

    Why do you keep going on about power and money? Are you hoping to run the Universe and get stinking rich?

  • Comment number 15.

    Please would one of you clever clogs help an innumerate little old lady? I have got my head round the fact that a billion is 1,000,000,000. (I still used commas - that's the way I was brought up). Would someone please write out a trillion in figures, with all its noughts, for me?

  • Comment number 16.

    "You can offend millions with a really good acronym. An American mate of mine came up with SWINE - (Scotland/Wales, Ireland, Northern England) to describe all the bits of the UK he declared economically unviable. Like I said, millions."

    Talking of 'The Respect Agenda', Emily ....... sounds like the swines at Newsnight Scotland have scooped Newsnight London yet again with tonight's
    extended interview with former Liberal Leader Lord Steel of Aikwood. But
    you will be covering The Queen while we swine opt out and examine cracks in the coalition ....

  • Comment number 17.

    The Conservative/Liberal coalition running the Scottish Borders Council also seems to be showing some signs of strain .... the Tories have just
    ganged up to vote out the Liberal Democratic Education Convenor Catriona Bhatia who spoke out publicly against proposed cuts in nursery provision:



    She is former Liberal Party Leader David Steel's daughter .......

  • Comment number 18.

    This is worth a read...

    Noam Chomsky interview


    Who does he remind you of most?

  • Comment number 19.

    #15

    Trillion

  • Comment number 20.

    Emily, it's only yesterdsy that I used the phrase 'down with the swine'. Whether the Americsn mate of yours has seen it or not is insignificant here but I've noticed that you tend to repeat some of the phrases that I use in my Newsnight posts. I don't particularly mind that as long as you do not act on behalf of an enemy of mine, the one you seemed to 'act' for on the election night. None of you on Newsnight should give in to any pressure coming from him. That is why I do not watch Newsnight much these days, apart from when Jeremy is on.

    I shall watch the bits on Pauline Malefine and The Queen on the iPlayer tomorrow but that's just about it. You seem to have 'managed' to lose a contributive viewer, I'm afraid, Emily.

    Re: BRIC

    I just wonder how many ordinary folk do find their 'rich' countries good to live in and how many kiddies in some of them at least die of starvation or preventative disseases every day? Should the UK rely on them or is the country resourceful and clever enough to pull out of the reecession without them and at the expense of the suffering foreign natives?

    mim

  • Comment number 21.

    SINCERITY WITHOUT EYE-CONTACT

    How impressive to watch Obama and Netanyahu pledging themselves to their boots.

    Would it not be better if their union WERE breakable? That would mean they were in the real world, and that they had to work at it.

    What a load of phoney window-dressing.

  • Comment number 22.

    Cameron on Torture



    I hope I'm included on the victims' list though I'm not aware of having ever been considered as a terrorist.

    mim

  • Comment number 23.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 24.

    Emily

    Having written #20 I'm being subjected to even more torture, i.e. external and internal physical pressure. Psychologically I remain as fine as I can be under the circumstances and am enjoying M&S passion fruit and coconut ice cream accompanied by Askey's wafers.

    Are you sure you are fully aware of what you're doing, pretty, and hopefully in the long run not that stupid, lady?

    mim

  • Comment number 25.

    The BRICs will not save us, more smoke and mirrors, perhaps the ´óÏó´«Ã½/MiniTru needs a reality check -

    G-20 is Relying on China To Drive the World Economy ... But China Isn't Looking So Hot


    Massive Downward Revision Of China Leading Economic Index Refutes China "Recovery" Myth


    CEBM Warns China Exports And Imports To Decelerate In Q3 And Onward


    Ken Rogoff: "China Property Market Collapse Starting"

  • Comment number 26.

    Its a bit like facebook on here.
    My status:

    I've had an awful ear infection for a few days now. I had a performance on sunday. I couldn't hear any hecklers from the left of me.

    Emily and CO. You can use that if you want..just remember where you got it from though.

    Can you put my name on the closing credits please...that would be nice..thanks.

  • Comment number 27.

    That swine Salmond has beaten you to it Newsnight ........

    Aiming at Chinese Golfers

    Scotland and China

    Sharing Responsibility for Animal Health

    India Plan

  • Comment number 28.

    What happened to the Newsnight Scotland interview with Lord Steel then?

  • Comment number 29.

    #18

    Mention Chomsky and I instantly think of my Warsaw University days, tabula rasa vs innate predispositions we are all born with, linguistics vs philosophy and so on, and ulitimately studies given up for the sake of ice skating though I did work at the same time in order not to feel humiliation asking my mum for financial support. In the end, as far as I remember, i probably earned more than her who worked as a surgeon in a Warsaw NHS style hospital.

  • Comment number 30.

    #27 Oh dear, oh dear oh dear, Neil, has Salmond worked out that there are over billion each of Chinese and indians, you'll be swamped if they all visit, oh and your jobs might vanish as well, silly Salmond.

  • Comment number 31.

    #26 kevseywevsey

    "I've had an awful ear infection for a few days now. I had a performance on sunday. I couldn't hear any hecklers from the left of me."

    Was it due to long term effects of the impact of rubber bullets dating back to your Belfast childhood?

    Perhaps it could also be due to over exposure to your orgone energy accumulator.

    As for facebook at least we don't see read so many of the head banging far right on here eh!

  • Comment number 32.

    #10 barriesingelton

    "Science is now part of the POWER MATRIX of: money, commerce, religion and politics. Science is corrupted."

    You used to endorse the views of the National Socialist jaded_jean who used to spout on about genetics and in particular eugenics and racial differences in IQ .... could that be described as a tad corrupted?

    Think so.

  • Comment number 33.

    I gather the rabbit Alistair Campbell and the Sky post election row with Adam Boulton led to thousands of complaints that Ofcom has rejected.

    "While the conduct and manner of the discussion was certainly unusual, in terms of impartiality we consider that relevant views and issues were aired".

    Yes I am sure that if Campbell's signals about wanting to become an MP are answered there may be many "unusual" interviews in the future - but is that what a new Labour leader would want and what does Campbell do if the answer is no?

    Would the man once dubbed the "second most powerful man in the land" be content with being a back bench MP?

    Is Campbell a symbol of all that was wrong with Labour and all that remains wrong?

  • Comment number 34.

    #16 neil robertson

    "But you will be covering The Queen while we swine opt out and examine cracks in the coalition ...."

    So what is it this week five or six hundred per cent of Liberal Democratic voters who are now with Labour.

    If the coalition prospers and there is a new voting system the Lib Dems move on and so do the Tories if the medicine is seen to work.

    What then for Labour?

  • Comment number 35.

    Brightyangthing

    (^_^)(^_^)(^_^)(^_^)(^_^)(^_^)(^_^)(^_^)
    mim

  • Comment number 36.

    the current marxist narrative is that china has a better 'economic' model which they call state capitalism. In the report there was no mention that their 'model' depends upon ignoring human rights, international patent/copyright law, international currency exchange manipulation, suppression of freedoms in media etc. So when the marxist gleefully talk up 'state capitalism' one has to see the shadow of misery upon which it is built. A society people still try to escape from and get illegally into the uk.

    NN could not exist in China.

    China has cunningly squeezed the west like a lemon and now can extend their empire. China are old fashioned imperialists. The fact that the west institutionalises incompetence and has no society building plan means anyone with a plan is likely to wipe the floor with them especially given the addiction to bonkers Adam Smith market fundamentalism and self interest as the best 'regulator' that only achieves crashes for the many.

    how successful would china be if the currency floated, there was human rights, respect for patent law, freedom of information etc?

  • Comment number 37.

    Thanks, DebtJuggler. All is now clear.

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