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Monday 9 January 2012

Verity Murphy | 13:59 UK time, Monday, 9 January 2012

The opening salvos in the battle over the future of the United Kingdom have been fired with David Cameron saying that uncertainty over Scotland's status is damaging and should be quickly resolved.

Tonight David Grossman reports on the battle lines being drawn up, what strings Westminster will try to attach to any referendum on Scottish independence and how the Scottish nationalists are likely to react. Plus we will be speaking to senior politicians on both sides of the argument.

Also, when they met in Berlin today French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel seemed to have put aside their differences on a controversial tax on financial market transactions. Tonight we examine the likelihood that the so-called Robin Hood tax will be implemented across the European bloc.

And Peter Marshall reports from Ohio, a key US presidential contest battleground and bellwether state to see how the main challenge facing all White House hopefuls - the state of the economy - is shaping voters' views.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    SO CAMERON'S CONCERN IS FOR UK - JUST AS WAS NICKS AT COALITION

    OK - if Dave has given that as his reason, we can rule it out and start looking for the truth. (Just as Nick's 'doing the best thing for Britain' was really: 'climbing as high as he was ever going to get'.)

    My advice to Salmond is to raise an army and march on London, while ours are all tied up in Johnnie Foreigner Land. What a pity Diana is not around to ally herself with his cause.

    Dave's 'NO' is becoming a habit. He should get himself to a monastery.

  • Comment number 2.

    YES THEY CAN - EXPOSE THE DARK FORCES RUNNING USA RAGGED

    But Obama is accruing despotic powers to make damned sure: NO THEY CAN'T do anything about it, thereafter.

    Will this be THE LAST BATTLE before we all slip into the Cracks of Doom?

    Please do not flush the toilet while Armageddon is in progress . . .

  • Comment number 3.

    "Deep in the psychology of power {at Westminster} lurks a yearning for life in a newly built Zil lane to a perpetual Olypmics. {Westminster} policy is essentially elitist. It distrusts the marketplace and the decisions of ordinary people {especially Scots}. It strives to look after its own."

    * Mildly paraphrased from a piece by Simon Jenkins/Guardian/Nov 2011.

  • Comment number 4.

    "Also, when they met in Berlin today French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel seemed to have put aside their differences on a controversial tax on financial market transactions. Tonight we examine the likelihood that the so-called Robin Hood tax will be implemented across the European bloc."

    Ahh!...now we know the real reason for Cameron's NON to EU fiscal union...it's all about the FTT tax - stoopid!



    The firms behind the lobbyists against it have the deepest pockets. Its called HEDGING - don't you know!

  • Comment number 5.

    CAMERON IN CAMERA - CANARDS CONNIVANCE AND CALUMNIES

    We are told Dave is gearing up to rein in fat-cat excesses. Yeah right. This can only mean one thing: in consultation with said fat-cats (who fund the purchase of Tory wins, at election) WAYS ROUND ANY REINING-IN have been worked out, and made ready.

    DISMANTLE WESTMINSTER - WE CAN'T STAND ANOTHER ONE

  • Comment number 6.

    The Unionists need to come out and tell us English, Scottish and Welsh patriots why we are better off in the so-called United Kingdom, espescially when the Scots and the Welsh, by previous voting patterns over generations, have broadly expressed an inclination towards the 'Scandinavian Socialist' model, whilst the English have tended towards a more capitalistic model.

    To my mind, that is the fatal contradiction at the heart of the so-called United Kingdom, which plods on like a zombie political entity, desparately using events such as the {London} Olympics as its cheer leader/last hurrah.

  • Comment number 7.

    'Tonight David Grossman reports on the battle lines being drawn up, what strings Westminster will try to attach to any referendum..

    As a matter of interest, as one presumably not privy to the inner workings of government, how 'will' Mr. Grossman 'report' on such strings, given that as they remain (by definition) in the future to conjure, it 'will' be, at best, a guess. Even then, I'd err more on 'might', if watertight oversight is any more than a means to only clam up when it doesn't suit.

    And given recent history, a very narrow one at that.

    Will it be 'sourced' from twitter, now it's back in vogue after last week's unfortunate disrailing?

  • Comment number 8.

    David Cameron saying that uncertainty over Scotland's status is damaging.

    It might well be, but not primarily for the reasons that Cameron puts forward, which he says are that the uncertainty is causing businesses to pause before investing in Scotland.

    This blogger thinks it is more likely that Cameron, Osborne and the rest of the political elite do not take kindly to politicians from other countries e.g. France asking for how much longer the United Kingdom will exist?

    Cameron and company know that once the UK starts to politically unravel then seats at 'top tables' in the UN, NATO, IMF etc will be under threat and they do not like that notion at all.

    That is why they will fight it tooth and nail, it is nothing to do with us ordinary English, Scots and Welsh and never has been for the politicial elite.

    We're just muppets to be 'shaped'.

  • Comment number 9.

    The US presidential contest should, in theory, provides acres of coverage hours for the media but it is already turning into a non-event because the most serious Republican candidates are refusing to stand against POTUS Obama.

    Sort of end of.

    PS. I expect the second Obama term to be much more dynamic, as per previous incumbents who have been re-elected as they no longer have to worry about being popular.

  • Comment number 10.

    I wonder if Slamond can wipe this off his SNP environmental ideological shoe ?

  • Comment number 11.

    When the Swedes implemented the Tobin aka Robin Hood tax from 1983 to abandonment in 1991, it was because the tax raised very little revenue as the trades simply moved to Oslo and London, most never to return.

    Therefore, one might reasonably expect that if the EU goes ahead with this tax, then many trades will simply move to other financial centres outside of the EU e.g. New York, Hong Kong, Singapore etc.

    I wonder why anybody would suppose that this is not a likely outcome?

  • Comment number 12.

    8.
    At 17:46 9th Jan 2012, JohnConstable wrote:

    'David Cameron saying that uncertainty over Scotland's status is damaging.

    It might well be, but not primarily for the reasons that Cameron puts forward, which he says are that the uncertainty is causing businesses to pause before investing in Scotland.

    This blogger thinks it is more likely that Cameron, Osborne and the rest of the political elite do not take kindly to politicians from other countries e.g. France asking for how much longer the United Kingdom will exist?'

    ++
    Yes indeed!

    Most in Scotland are terrified of the hidden cost of 'Independence' & so it will probably never happen - Scotland has a not insubstantial share of UK national debt to take on, 'post independence' (拢50- 拢100 bn? & which is a lot for a rel. small Scottish population) - and the SNP is looking to keep the GB pound sterling as Scottish currency, post-independence, which really is absolutely bizarre after SNP complaining for years about Westminster - Is an Independent Scotland really looking to operate 拢 GBP under auspices of Bank of England? This is absurd?

    If Scotland does go independent, Scottish taxes will have to rise enormously & most Scots will move to rest of UK to find work & find lower taxes - so result is that England will be taking in more Scots as they flood out of a bankrupt Scotland as the Scottish currency will be worth less than toilet paper & the Scots will have to go shopping in Scotland with rolls of Scottish pounds hidden up their kilts.

    New EU currency straightjacket Treaty would also bankrupt Scotland with new stringent borrowing - v GDP rules & so Cameron has SNP by their Sporrans over issues like 'currency' & EU tax rules will also prevent Scotland under-cutting UK corporation tax rate. Scotland would also have to find a few billion, itself, in EU contributions & bail-out payments for other countries - Its all starting to add up!

    SNP have some explaining to do as is bringing the Union & all of UK into disrepute - which I think is also part of their SNP tactics.

    Cameron has to tackle these issues head on now & spell it out to the SNP - he has no choice? Which is exactly what he is starting to do.

    SNP need to be honest with Scottish electorate and explain that what they are proposing to do with a new Scottish currency is very high risk indeed - if it all went pear shaped after Independence - England would still be picking up the tab for Scotland as Scotland became less populated that the Outer Hebrides.

    There is a lot here that is not being discussed - as you have also pointed out - & SNP are not counting the likely true cost of 'Independence' - they haven't even got started

  • Comment number 13.

    WHY WOULD ANYONE SUPPOSE (#11)

    I seem to remember comment to the effect that our politicians return, as a dog to his vomit, to old failed policies. And why not? They are not motivated (or remunerated) by improving the lot of the common man; they just 'do stuff' and get paid, whatever the results. MPs are not able individuals, they are Westminster Creatures with characteristics that please the party mentality.

    THIS IS THE AGE OF PERVERSITY

  • Comment number 14.

    Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP 1m

    The EU was sold as a trade-off between democracy and trade: we'd lose self-government, but gain prosperity. Does anyone still believe that?

  • Comment number 15.

    COMMON MARKET HEATH AND THE AGE OF PERVERSITY (#14)

    When Ted started the ball rolling, I had no idea we were entering the Age of Perversity.

    By the time Major signed Maastricht, I knew it was self-aggrandisement on the part of a weak man, and not something an Island Nation should get tangled up in.

    Since then, I have not believed anything coming from politicians. We are living within the lie.

  • Comment number 16.

    Green Party perhaps using frail pensioners as a political football, make your own judgement on the article ( threats to significantly cut care services ? )

  • Comment number 17.

    Why of why did news night give the Scottish second minister such an easy time yet again. Can someone please tell Scotland there is more than one country in the union. They want independence but keep the queen, pound and army just not pay for it.

  • Comment number 18.

    Can anyone tell me where the aerial shot of mountains and glens was filmed? It was at the beginning of the item on independence in Scotland. Thanks

  • Comment number 19.

  • Comment number 20.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 21.

    I suspect that the same thing may inevitably happen with plans for underground coal gasification here in the near future UK, once again alleged environmentalists apparently desperate to maintain the current form of the " global " as well as established national energy cartels, keep prices artificially inflated ?

  • Comment number 22.

    @20 I protest! In this case anything offensive had to be created by the mind of the beholder. ;-D

    My language was most certainly "parliamentary". Consider this Hansard extract of a speech by the late lamented Robin Cook:

    "The Government also revealed their incompetence by .... turning up at the meeting with a four-page sketch that the Spanish Agriculture Minister described as "mierda"; a term which, if literally translated, I am sure you would rule unparliamentary, Madam Speaker, but which was paraphrased by The Daily Mail as "clearly insufficient" "



    I remember laughing out loud as I heard this on Radio 4 back in '96. Mr Cook's wit and rhetorical talents would have been wasted in the small pool of a hypothetically independent Scotland.

  • Comment number 23.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • Comment number 24.

    In the section on the end of the American dream there was mention of a congressional report that showed that the real term wages o the middle class had stagnated over the last 10 years. Do any of you know the name of that report or know of the data upon which it was based.
    Thanks

  • Comment number 25.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • Comment number 26.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • Comment number 27.

    Just heard 'the interview' (and a bit of 'reaction' too, for a laugh.

    Odd. Our Mr. H is not usually so 'disrespectful', is he?

    Nothing to do with the old guard seeing a lead balloon about to drag the ship to the bottom and paving the way for a deckchair clearing (mixing a few metaphors there, sorry)?

    If the Graun weighs in against Mr. Miliband, the troika forces of weevil will be joined as one and the plot, plus less than subtle desperate shared agenda to shape the country on the people's behalf, confirmed.

    Have to say, there are some delicious sound-bites around already for future savouring.

    All for loyalty, but if ever there was a case of 鈥業f you can鈥檛 say something sane, best not to fall prey to the lure of a microphone (or twitter cache) to confirm it for posterity鈥, I鈥檇 say many Labour MPs and cabinet munchkins might have cause to rue ignoring that.

    How it gets 鈥榓nalysed鈥 by our impartial tribal media 鈥榚xperts鈥 will be a hoot, as they either dig further holes on integrity, stab the boss, or get shown up for plotting the purge/rally with the alternative minnows and their 'sources are saying' 鈥榗amps鈥.

  • Comment number 28.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • Comment number 29.

    #24 Ric

  • Comment number 30.

    Scotland Referendum

    Having been told to mind my own business before on this subject , I will not voice an opinion on the pros or cons of a yes or no decision, after all that is up to the Scottish people to decide.

    But on the matter of a 鈥渄evolution max鈥 option , I do wonder where there is such a option in the Act of Union. To my mind article 3 seems unambiguous.

    鈥淭hat the United Kingdom of Great Britain be represented by one and the same Parliament to be stiled The Parliament of Great Britain.鈥

    There is no provisions for a pick and mix option.

    Further complicating such a option would be the fact that the UK Parliament was not the parliament which approved the Act in the first place , it was separately given authority by both the English Parliament and the Scottish Parliament, the consequence of which created the UK Parliament.
    I would like to see the legal basis which suggests the UK Parliament can arbitrarily amend its own creation.

    So the only way I see for a 鈥渄evolution max鈥 option being realized is by renegotiation between England and Scotland via their respective Parliaments , the original contracting parties. But even doing that there would be no guarantee of an agreement being reached between the two parties.
    So 鈥渄evolution max鈥 could be seen as just another way to phrase the 鈥測es鈥 option, giving two options on any ballot for leaving the union.

    Of course there may be better opinions out there , but this is how I currently interpret the situation.

    E.U.-E.Z.F.U.

    The other members of the EU know what the UK expects in return for approving such amendments to the EU treaty.
    As for the suggestion President Sarkozy is just "playing it up" because of the forthcoming French election , I would remind NN he was rather boastful when the new Lisbon Treaty jobs were being handed out back in 2009. I -

    Mr Sarkozy said: 鈥淚t鈥檚 the first time in 50 years that France has had this role. The English are the big losers in this business.鈥

    This government is just having to clear up yet another mess left to it by the last government.


    Ohio Report -

    Interesting, I wish them luck.
    I sow this on Detroit a few years ago. Maybe Peter would like to do a report from there and show how the bailouts have changed the situation ?

    I like having something to compare against.

  • Comment number 31.

    28. At 10:54 10th Jan 2012, GhostofWatTyler -
    Perhaps it would be more honest if 大象传媒 news and current affairs programmes like NN and QT were described as entertainment or "shows" and preceded with a warning about their contents being "purely fictional"?


    Honest... yes. Hence a cat in hell's chance. Thereby not also gaining the appellation 'Mostly Harmless', as such dishonesty, or delusion, is dangerous.

    I just wish my MP was not so addicted to the Green rooms and red sofas, to aver that no critique on matters of accuracy or objectivity are allowed as far as he is concerned, as we are dealing with a 'national treasure'.

    Harking back several decades I don't recall that cosy a view, but the sentiment around state media has poor historical precedent.

    I'd imagine in this mind, he (a Tory), would be less than thrilled at the shafting of Mr. Miliband now, as he serves well for some to keep him in place.

  • Comment number 32.

    If the Labour Party were looking to ease out Ed Miliband as a liability, driving him off a cliff as chauffeur and passengers seems.. 'brave'.

  • Comment number 33.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • Comment number 34.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • Comment number 35.

    @25 "Yes Sasha....you globalist ersatz socialist opportunists never quite managed to "reform" Robin Cook into a fully brainwashed example of the unacceptable face of working class politics did you!"
    ..........................................................And Happy New Year to you Jim! :-)

    Robin Cook was probably the best leader Labour never had. Unfortunately he was never photogenic enough for these image conscious days, and he had a bit of an Achilles heel in the trouser department too. As the example of Sarko shows, it wouldn't have mattered in France, but here his peckerdillos would have been used mercilessly against him by those whose moral standing is undoubtedly irreproachable:



  • Comment number 36.

    Ed was lucky he wasn't named named Steve.

  • Comment number 37.

    Well, after a rocky start with the Today programme, I'm sure it all went awfully well later when under more in-house control.

    Didn't it?

    Anyway, off now to read up on impartial integrity in The Independent.

    I am sure the editor of that august journal knows how Mr. M feels about twitter being a double-edged medium to reply upon.

    Quality, eh?

  • Comment number 38.

    '34. At 12:11 10th Jan 2012, GhostofWatTyler

    He, and others, may be surprised what I do, and don't realise.

    Like an iceberg, I have hidden aspects for the unwary:)

  • Comment number 39.

    sshhh. don't mention the american dream [manufacturing jobs] have gone to china. which is the reason why the chinese adopted their currency policy which they have said they will never change because it will 'cost jobs'. which is the same in the uk. the uk can never recover without intervention to nullify the artificial and imperialist chinese advantage

  • Comment number 40.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • Comment number 41.

    'All for loyalty, but if ever there was a case of 鈥業f you can鈥檛 say something sane, best not to fall prey to the lure of a microphone (or twitter cache) to confirm it for posterity鈥

    Just saw Ed Balls on SKY.

    Let's just say the economies of whelk stalls can breath a sigh of relief.

    Not even their more insane managements would hire him to run 'em.

  • Comment number 42.

    @40 "and your Filipino friend too." ????????????????????????????????????

    "...perhaps you chaps could go back to your homelands too and make way for me?"

    If I were to go back to MY homeland(s) I would have to be chopped up and little bits of me scattered all over the northern hemisphere. Of course, it depends upon how far you go back. Perhaps the entire human race should go back to that cave in Africa and evict the hyenas who have so presumptuously occupied it in our absence?

  • Comment number 43.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • Comment number 44.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • Comment number 45.

    LEST WE FORGET

    Robin Cook was a brilliant pollytician who didn't toe the Blair neocon party line on the Iraq war, which was probably why he was taken care of.



    "Cook was known to disagree with the aggressive Blairite foreign policies of New Labour, and finally quit his cabinet position in March 2003 over the second war on Iraq, his statement electrified the house, 鈥業 cannot support a war without international agreement or domestic support鈥.
    His enemies blurted to the press that Cook had being seeing another woman, and the newspaper hatchets were soon out to try to discredit him.
    Why wouldn鈥檛 they? Robin Cook as Foreign secretary had direct access to intelligence operations and policy abroad, and 9 months before his death Cook was said to be breaking the official secrets act and discussing policy and future proposals. He famously exposed the contrived war on terror, revealing the history of America鈥檚 involvement with supporting Muslim extremists, claiming Al Qaeda simply meant database:
    鈥淏in Laden was, though, a product of a monumental miscalculation by western security agencies. Throughout the 80s he was armed by the CIA and funded by the Saudis to wage jihad against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. Al-Qaida, literally 鈥渢he database鈥, was originally the computer file of the thousands of mujahideen who were recruited and trained with help from the CIA to defeat the Russians. Inexplicably, and with disastrous consequences, it never appears to have occurred to Washington that once Russia was out of the way, Bin Laden鈥檚 organisation would turn its attention to the west.鈥

    In March 1998 a diplomatic row blew up with Israel when prime minister Bejamin Netanyahu cancelled a dinner meeting with Robin Cook while Cook was in Israel. He was opposing the Israeli expansion plans in Palestine and Iraq. As reported in the NYTimes:
    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu angrily canceled a dinner today with the British Foreign Secretary, charging that the visiting official had violated an agreement by meeting with Palestinians at the planned site of a disputed Jewish settlement.
    Netanyahu was said to have caused problems for Cook behind the scenes and wanted him removed from office."

    Assassinations by induced heart attack and cancer

  • Comment number 46.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 47.

    Just as they did in the 1970's London / Tories interfere with Scotland's politics - making the rules up to suit themselves in the short term. However, we did get devolution and bit by bit more powers in Edinburgh. When will they learn? Their efforts only galvanise opinion against them in Scotland - talk about little England or little London - the MP's from around the UK seem to ignore trends of change as seen within their small glass bubble of Westminster. Some residents of this obsolete palace still hark back to the Empire and British 'Greatness'. Get over it - all of you MP's - Scotland will decide it's own future without you - we do not need nor want you. The SNP have an overwhelming mandate to rule Scotland while you Liberals and Tories have no power whatsoever in Scotland. How dare you think you can dictate to the people living in Scotland.

  • Comment number 48.

    @ museV reply to Ric
    Thanks very much. Genuinely interested in the subject. It would be great if the source material which the bbc use could be added to an online bibliography for those that would like to delve further. Presumably this must be on file for a report such as this. I have always appreciated the time and effort that goes in to 大象传媒 reporting and it would be nice to leverage some of their work . Any way thanks again museV.

  • Comment number 49.

    Awkward times for the Unionists if George Osborne is planning the strategy to keep the UK in one piece.

    According to todays Times leader, the Unionists need to find somebody in Scotland to lead the Unionist cause and Alastair Darling has been mooted.

    One might have thought that Gordon Brown, who went through a phase of 'Britishness' whilst he was PM, would be a possible candidate.

    But it seems that native Scots are not very enamoured of politicians who slope off to Westminster to ply their trade, so maybe the Unionists will just have to dredge up 'Goldie'.

    Desparate stuff.

    My view is that the Unionists are going to lose this one, they cannot outfox Alex Salmond, who, IMHO, will not only bring self-determination and self-respect back to Scotland but will also, as a by-product, set us English back on the road to freedom from the dead hand of the Westminster Unionists.

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