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Is it a landslide?

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William Crawley | 03:28 UK time, Wednesday, 5 November 2008

obama_sc_04_01_2007-731285.jpgI am about to go to bed after a US election-night party at the home of my friend. Although David Dimbleby is being extremely careful not to call this election for Obama -- yet -- even after Ohio, the party I was at called it mathematically when Obama won Pennsylvania. As I write, Fox News is projecting 207-138 in Obama's favour. Meanwhile, John Bolton, the former US Ambassador to the UN, is challenging claims that Obama is about to secure a 'landslide' victory. By most definitions I can find, a presidential landslide is defined by 55 per cent of the popular vote or 60 per cent of the electoral vote. By current projections, it looks like Senator Obama could well be elected president tonight in a landslide victory of historic proportions. The much-feared Bradley effect failed to materialize. And soon after polls closed in east coast states, McCain strategists were already speaking of his candidacy in the past tense. They are now on TV shows explaining defeat in terms a collapses economy and denying that McCain's selection of Sarah Palin harmed his bid for the presidency. However they explain it, no one doubts that America is going to bed tonight having just elected its first black president.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive!
    Ah, well, hope is a good breakfast.

  • Comment number 2.

    Brian, we may have found a deep metaphysical truth that we agree on.

    The breakfast bit I mean.

    GV

  • Comment number 3.

    Can we reduce the size of the picture. We get the point. He won. Now America can go bomb a different set of countries.

    GV

  • Comment number 4.

    And I'll bet historians will look back and blame Iraq and the bamking crisis - McCain dipped just as Lehman collapsed. Palin's a convenient scape-goat for Republicans.

    GV

  • Comment number 5.

    Graham:

    Now, steady one. America is a 'peace-loving nation'. Bush said it. So has every President in every era that they have attacked or invaded or violated the sovereignty of another country. All in the cause of peace, you understand.

  • Comment number 6.

    Steady one should, of course, be steady on.

    BTW:

    The quote "Hope is a good breakfast, but it is a bad supper" is from the divine Francis.

  • Comment number 7.

    Congrats to Barak. I'm pleased he won.
    I don't want this to seem mean spirited but is it any less racicist to vote for a candidate because of his colour than not to vote for a candidate because of his colour?

  • Comment number 8.

    Can we PLEASE downsize the picture? I've a religious objection to icons.

  • Comment number 9.

    Picture downsized. The original size was an error caused by lack of sleep rather than a political or iconographical statement.


  • Comment number 10.


    The true tests of his worth will be how quickly (or indeed whether) he closes the US detention camp in Guantanamo Bay; if he ends the torture of political prisoners both directly by agents of his own government and vicariously by agents of US client states; and whether he makes available to British justice the names of British agents who have participated in such activities - given that of-course British citizens can be made pay for their actions before international courts. Even better, it would be nice to see America subject its own citizens to such sanctions. Sorry to be a misery guts but I'm not holding my breath for a full house.

  • Comment number 11.

    I wouldn't call it a landslide. Not the way Johnson beat Goldwater, Nixon beat McGovern, or Reagan beat Mondale. The winner take all system of the electoral college (with rare exception like Nebraska) is designed to exaggerate the importance of smaller states so a big win in the electoral college doesn't necessarily reflect huge differences in the popular votes.



    Compare the differences in the elections I cited in the link above and you'll see what I mean.

    Many factors conspired against McCain. The economy was certainly one of them (although there was more than enough blame to go around for both parties on that one) Palin was another, the country being fed up with the Republicans and wanting a change is another. Ironically the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and US foreign relations was not a significant factor. But the expectations of Obama may be far greater than what even a competent individual could deliver. This tyro is intelligent but he'd better win the Guiness book of records for climbing the steepest climb which will be his learning curve or we are all in for a disaster. That's what I'm expecting. In fact that is what my financial planning is counting on. I saw all this including the economic collapse of the world coming although I underestimated its size. Why did the Dow drop 500 points today? In expectation of higher capital gains taxes. The Democrats tax the rich policy will not help the economy. They would be far better off with lots of inflation and printing lots of money which is their usual mode of handling recessions the Republicans create.

  • Comment number 12.


    Marcus- The definition of a landslide in the U.S. is 60 percent or more of the electoral college. Obama qualifies; it's a landslide.


  • Comment number 13.

    John Wright, you have your definition, I have mine.

  • Comment number 14.

    Now a landslide is a relative term? Can we argue that Obama lost? You've your definition of a win and I have mine?

    GV

  • Comment number 15.

    Marcus, time to eat your words, isn't it? This is one of the biggest landslides in American history!

  • Comment number 16.

    If Obama won each of the fifty states by one vote, by the definition of some people that would have been a landslide, he'd have taken all of the electoral votes. In fact, he would have won by fifty votes out of over 130 million cast. Is that a landslide? Well that depends on whose definition of landslide you use but it isn't by mine.

    I said here about a year ago, that Obama would not win. I was wrong. I never imagined the old saw which has it that nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people would prove so true.

    I know a lot of you like Barack Obama for quite a number of reasons. I like him too but not for President of the United States, at least not right now. We'll see just how much you still like him once he's had a chance to demonstrate how he handles the office. So far all he's proved is that he could win the election against a candidate and a party that had all of the cards stacked against them and made one blunder after another. He also proved his strategy of winning against Hillary Clinton by going after the caucus states in the primaries worked. Let's hope he's as formidable an adversary when he sits across the table from Vladimir Putin or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

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