I'm on my way up to Edinburgh to witness the dramatic conclusion of an election whose outcome still hangs in the balance.
Who would have guessed it? Who would have dared? A single seat in Scotland - Labour's historic heartland - the home of its next leader - could separate disappointment from disaster. Tonight Gordon Brown can only wait and watch to discover whether that result will deal him a bitter blow just weeks before he fulfils his dream of moving homes in Downing Street.
If the Nationalists do secure a historic first victory and if they can go on to form a governing coalition a Salmond-led Scotland could haunt a Brown-led Britain. A political civil war in Scotland will hardly help Mr Brown's efforts to reach out to Middle England.
If, on the other hand, Labour just holds on to power, the gasp of relief from Edinburgh will be felt hundreds of miles away in Westminster.
General elections are, of course, won and lost not North of the border but in England. Here, Labour's performance was poor - but it was marginally better than the results which preceded Tony Blair's election for a third term. The party is comforting itself that David Cameron's Tories - though clearly on a roll - are only just beginning to gain victories beyond their traditional heartlands.
And yet, they will know that winning a fourth term, led by Gordon Brown and not Tony Blair, up against David Cameron as against Michael Howard is a very very different proposition.
For the first time time in a decade the political future is unpredictable. Tonight it's game on.
I can't give a final verdict as the result in Scotland and Wales is still unclear and the local elections are only half counted.
So far, though, my view is:
• A bad night for Labour but they'll be relieved it's not been worse UNLESS they go on and lose in Scotland later.
• A good night for the Tories but they'll be disappointed they didn't do better in key northern targets such as Bury and Crewe, and didn't come second in Wales.
• A disappointing night for the Lib Dems, but some council gains in key battlegrounds will lessen their gloom.
The worst night was for democracy. Different voting systems and confusing ballot papers robbed tens of thousands of people of their chance to vote.
The 大象传媒's boffins are now predicting that the Labour Party will fall well short of the 30 seats needed for it to be able to control the Assembly on its own. Indeed, we are forecasting it will win no more than 26 seats, two less than it secured in the debacle of 1999.
Plaid Cymru are predicted to retain second place, though with 14 seats the party will still be below the 17 that it won in 1999. Nevertheless, the Tories will be disappointed at having failed to oust the nationalists from third place. At 22%, their vote is up just a couple of points on 2003.
The Lib Dems is expected to emerge with one more seat than it has at the moment and is likely to be called upon by Labour to help it form a majority coalition.
It's been a bad night for Rhodri Morgan and not the predicted vindication for his strategy of keeping "clear red water" between himself and Tony Blair.
If you're watching the TV programme in England and saw David Dimbleby mock me for repeating what he'd just said, you might be interested to know that one of my first jobs was as the researcher who whispers facts into his earpiece. Later I was the editor of programmes he made, and he advised me to bcome a reporter.
I took his advice. Now, it's my turn to give him some!
So Labour have now gained a seat in the Welsh assembly having lost three (one each to the Tories, Plaid and the Independents). It's still unclear whether they'll be above the 25 seat mark considered crucial for Rhodri Morgan if he wishes to stay as first minister...
The failure to win is another poor performance by the SNP in a vital west of Scotland marginal. If the SNP fail to come first tonight it will be because they could not crack Labour's west of Scotland heartland.
So Alex's deputy is elected as well... Nicola Sturgeon was a very prominent face in the SNP's campaign - Alex Salmond didn't want to present himself alone. They appeared together at the manifesto launches, etc etc. She was a member of the Scottish Parliament before, but only via the proportional representation side of things - the list, as we call it - not directly elected.
What's helping the SNP achieve such success is the absence of the Scottish Socialists. They used to stand in both the constituency section and the list section. They took a decision to stand only on the latter this time. Many of the SSP's supporters are to the left of the Labour party, disaffected with them for one reason or another. And a very high proportion of those people are obviously giving their votes to the SNP.
If the SNP can carry on winning constituency seats, AND do well on the list, then this will get very interesting...
It's patchy though. is matched by a disappointing one in .
Earlier I pointed out the councils which the Tories failed to gain. It's only fair to point out that they've recorded a number of quite spectacular gains eg North West Leicestershire; South Ribble; Chester; and North Somerset.
If they do gain 600 new councillors, 41% of the national vote and these gains David Cameron will be able to say it was a good night, but his failure to win in Bury and Crewe will mean others will say - was it good enough?
Interesting that Alex Salmond began his victory speech (watch it by clicking here) not by talking about the SNP but by attacking the electoral arrangements. As I just said on air... if the election is close - as close as it appears to be - these will be vital. Politicians will feel that they've been robbed of getting the proper sense of whether people did want a Labour or SNP victory.
And that, really, is not good for any of us.
Wow! The Lib Dems . They have not stopped Salmond. The SNP leader has just had a stunning victory in Gordon.
Hey presto! The have toiled long and hard and come up with the numbers that tell us how the parties have done nationally.
This, you might think is absurd since people are voting on local issues at least as much as national ones. Maybe, but these figures shape the way in which these elections are interpreted by the media and the politicians themselves.
Projected national share - Great Britain (based on English locals)
% vote
Con: 41 - that's up a point on last year
Lab: 27 - also up a point on last year
LD : 26 - down a point
Other: 6
Jeremy Vine: "This would probably be met with quiet disappointment" at Tory HQ.
They've emailed to say that, actually, a massive cheer went up in the office!
In one Scottish seat just announced - - there were 1,736 rejected ballots - that's a massive 7.2% of those who voted. The level of spoilt votes in the first three Scottish declarations has been running at 3% to 5%, well above the norm.
The huge number of wasted votes is presumably because people simply don't know how to fill in the ballot paper. Scots voters are not just having two votes for the Scottish parliament - there's an utterly separate system for the Scottish local elections, and of course, there's a third system for the Westminster elections. A potential problem with the electoral process.
Phew. That's likely to be the sentiment in Labour supporting homes up and down the land tonight.
The result in Scotland is still too close to call but they may well hang on to power. That's vital both symbolically and actually, since an SNP victory would mean that Gordon Brown's first days as prime minister would be dominated by a clash of two Scots - the Alex and Gordon show.
General elections are won and lost in England though and Labour will be relieved by the fact that the 大象传媒's estimate that their vote share is up just a little.
"Maybe we won't be making an advance as fast as we may want". Iain Duncan Smith has just exposed the anxiety that tonight's results will provoke for the Tories even though they're sure to be the overall winners.
The north west is a key target for them. They've made progress tonight - in Chester, for example - but not as much as they would have hoped - in Bury and Crewe and Nantwich, for example.
Update - you can now watch the Iain Duncan Smith interview by clicking here.
John Reid has just delivered a paean of praise for Gordon Brown. So I asked him to declare his support for him as prime minister and agree that he wouldn't run against him. I even offered to eat my hat on air if next week he announced his candidacy. Oddly, he didn't take up my challenge.
First signs from Scotland in the First Minister Jack McConnell's seat. The increase in the SNP vote at eight points is a little below that anticipated by the final polls, though the six point drop in the Labour vote is a little higher than expected. Altogether, if this result is typical, we are looking at a very tight race between Labour and the SNP.
The news from Scotland may take a long time coming in though. We're hearing that he boat from Arran has broken down in the Clyde. Another boat has been sent out to collect the ballot boxes, and possibly those on board.
And a helicopter problem (as mentioned by Brian below) means that the news is that the Western Isles will not count until Friday. Western Isles is a Labour-SNP marginal and if Labour lose it a list seat may in turn be in the balance between Labour and SNP. Everything might hang on this late result.
Some early signs of how the Tories are doing in the north. The party says that they are on course to become the largest party in Bury and to make gains in Crewe and Nantwich. The official results are not yet in. Sounds good - at first.
These areas used to have Tory MPs and these are councils they really need to take control of. So, the verdict will be likely to be good, but not good enough
Our boffins behind the scenes are analysing in detail the results in a few key wards. They tell me that the the early signs suggest this may not be as bad a night for Labour in England as had been anticipated. It may instead be the Lib Dems whose support is down on last year.
A good start for the Lib Dems. They've taken Pressa's council in Hull. That'll be a huge relief for them since they need to gain councils as they are unlikely to gain many councillors nationwide.
The 大象传媒 is not responsible for the content of external internet sites
