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Inflation is falling, and this winter's fuel prices are set to decline.

Interest rates are heading south, possibly to their lowest rates ever. Scottish property prices are still rising.

There were fewer people facing unemployment over the past three months than over the same period last year.

So our economic woes are surely behind us? Far from it. You can find some silver lining if you look for it, but there's a muckle great recessionary cloud attached to it.

On prices, we have a new prospect to worry us - deflation.

If demand for goods and services slumps far enough, the Bank of England's Governor, Mervyn King, reckons we could see prices falling.

It's already happening with property, you should be able to haggle down the price of a car, and you'll find high street shops already offering discounts at a time when they should be making their best margins ahead of Christmas.

If you think that process will continue, you may choose to put off buying big items until next year, assuming prices will be lower by then.

You may also feel forced to do that because you fear for your job, or because you're finding it harder and more expensive to get credit.

And if lots of people make that same decision to postpone spending, the collective effect is a vicious spiral of slumping demand. Lots of common sense choice by individuals mean a big bad choice for the economy.

Those rising property prices in Scotland, up by 0.1% according to Registers of Scotland, only measure the transactions taking place and only after they have been officially documented.

According to those in the business, the marketplace is emptying, as people hold properties off the market or refuse to accept lowered offers.

And those job fears are gathering pace.

The figures out today show an increase of 13,000 over the past three months to 126,000. That's lower than the same period last year, which is not what you might expect. And Scottish unemployment is hurting less than in England.

But if you measure the number of people claiming Jobseekers' Allowance in Scotland last month, you find it at 85,400, a rise of 12,800 on October last year.

How do we make sense of that? It looks like last year saw a bigger turnover of jobs, as people became unemployed - meaning they were registered as unemployed for a while - and moved back into employment over the three month period.

The figures suggest less turnover this year. And the Jobseeker figures for last month may reflect the sharp deterioriation in business confidence.

The evidence is mounting of employers preparing to freeze recruitment or shed staff.

Management at some manufacturing plants in England announced this week they are closing down for longer over Christmas as a device for reducing their pay bill. Workers will go two weeks without pay, and that will be paid back later next year ... if things pick up.

Will they? Well, there's not much economic forecasting for Scotland, but this morning saw one such report published by the Fraser of Allander Institute at Strathclyde University.

Its mid-range reckoning is on 4000 fewer jobs in Scotland this year, 37,000 fewer next year and 12,000 fewer in 2010. Only then will job numbers start growing again, by 12,000 in 2011.

It foresees Scotland facing less intense decline than England because it is less exposed to the property price slump. But the exceptional problems facing Royal Bank of Scotland and the Halifax Bank of Scotland are expected to punish the Scottish economy harshly.

"There is a probability that Scotland will go into recession in 2009 and that the effects may be felt harder here than the rest of the UK," conclude the economics boffins.

And their silver lining? It won't be as bad as the early 80s - this time, by contrast, government policy is intended to soften the blows.