New teams for Labor and Liberals
A slightly mystifying personality cult, in which tens of thousands of devoted fans proudly don shirts emblazoned with his name and number. The ability to make schoolgirls scream and grown men cheer wildly. The boyish grin. The wife who makes gazillions in her own right. The nagging questions over whether the talent justifies all the hype.
But that’s enough about David Beckham’s arrival in Sydney. Let’s turn instead to and his arrival in Canberra.
I’ve said before that the manner of the leader’s victory in '07 owed much to Tony Blair in '97 – the fiscal conservatism, the muscular Christianity, the vapid sloganeering (for New Labour read New Leadership), the broad smiles, the chumminess with Rupert Murdoch, etc, etc. The British MP , one of Blair’s great mates, was even in Australia for the latter stages of the campaign for some political coaching.
Now Prime Minister-elect Rudd seems to want to govern like Gordon Brown: with tight, some might argue overbearing, control, strict discipline and a rigid determination to keep his party on message.
Within hours of his victory on Saturday, smiley Kev became stern Kev. All year, he has been trying to charm the voters. Now he has decided it is time to scare the living daylights out of his own MPs.
First of all came the homework he set for them before today's meeting of the Labor party caucus. You have to visit two schools – one public, one private – and at least one homeless shelter before descending on Canberra.
Then there was the re-affirmation of a point which he has made before: that he would chose his own ministry free from the traditional influence of the party's factional power-brokers. This time, though, it was delivered with much more authority, since he clearly interprets his victory as having handed him a powerful personal mandate.
Australia has what is sometimes called a Washminster-style of government, a hybrid of the American and the British. Mr Rudd has proved adept at the "Wash" bit of the equation: successfully leading a presidential-style campaign.
In fact, he showed a startling ability to stay on message throughout, which speaks of his 24/7 work ethic, self-discipline, robotic mind, and that infuriating tendency to make journalists redundant at press conferences by not only fielding the questions but asking many of himself.
Now he has to grapple with the "minster" bit, where pesky cabinet colleagues and errant MPs who do not have his work ethic, self-discipline, robotic mind, etc, could easily land his incoming government in trouble. Surely he will find it more difficult to be a control freak prime minister than a control freak candidate.
A quick word on the , who find themselves in what one leading member has described as the worst state since Robert Menzies, Australia's longest serving prime minister, founded the party in 1944.
Now that Labor controls every state and territory, along with the House of Representatives – a first since Federation - the party's most senior office holder is Campbell Newman, who rejoices in the title of mayor of Brisbane.
So in the Liberal leadership contest today the party has opted for the recuperative powers of a former doctor, the outgoing defence minister, .
The former president of the Australian Medical Association has a penchant for electric guitars, powerful motorbikes and used to wear an earring. Sadly, his public persona is not anywhere near as racy. In the Canberra press gallery, his nickname is for his ability to rattle off reams and reams of statistics.
Rather drearily, Rudd vs Nelson promises to be not so much a gladiatorial showdown as a battle of the stats. Call it slide rule politics.
Curiously, in 1988, Brendan Nelson joined the Labor Party, reportedly in the hope of winning selection to fight for the seat of Denison, the ALP’s Tasmanian stronghold. When that failed, he joined the Liberals, and won selection in one of the party’s safest seats, Bradfield in Sydney.
By a vote of 45-42, Nelson beat Malcolm Turnbull, the man with the gold CV who probably paid the price for being too ambitious, too pushy and too moderate. The former Rhodes scholar has been something of a disappointment as a politician – rather like those fluorescent light bulbs he introduced as environment minister: determinedly low wattage.
Does Brendan Nelson look like a plausible prime minister? At this stage, probably not (Turnbull, by contrast, does). And in the post-war history of Australian politics, no incoming government has been sacked by the electorate after just one term in office.
His challenge over the next few years? To do for the Liberal Party what Mr Rudd did to the Labor Party – to make it re-electable. Or, to put it another way, to bend it like Kevin.
PS: A heartfelt word of appreciation to all those who have e-mailed and left nice comments on the forthcoming nuptials – even to the former colleague from my newspaper days who suggested that marriage was not really a democracy but a benign dictatorship. Many thanks.
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Nick, there are some very interesting coincidences regarding the 2007 election and those of 1929, when the electorate voted James Scullin's Australian Labor Party government into office, and 1931, out of office after only 1 term. 1. In 1929, when Scullin led the ALP to office, the previous PM, Stanley Melbourne Bruce, lost not only his office, but also his seat, due mainly to changes in workplace laws. In 2007, John Howard lost his government & his seat because of reaction to his workplace laws. 2. The eventual opposition leader to Scullin was Joseph Lyons, who founded the United Australia Party, the immediate forerunner to the present Liberal Party. Lyons had served in Scullin's cabinet & had also been an ALP premier of Tasmania. In 2007, the new opposition leader, Dr Brendan Nelson, had previously been a member of the Australian Labor Party, 3. Lyons was from Tasmania; Dr Nelson tried for ALP preselection in Tasmania. OK, they're not absolute coincidences, but still, it will be interesting to see if history repeats itself.
A three vote majority is hardly a thundering endorsement. I predict Nelson will play silly buggers with the coming IR laws and will pay the penalty. It won't be long before Turnbull will be replacing him. The coup from the west from the selfish mining sector will be short lived. Cashed up miners do not look past a self-interest. One day the worm will turn and I hope they don't get any sympathy.
Ern
Nick, what a great blog. Much more witty and pointed than standard Oz fare. The only other one that's a joy to read is that Crabb girl (Sydney Morning Herald). I'm going to bookmark your site and return to read an overseas view of our politics.
... So very delighted for Australia's "OUT with the OLD & in with a 'BRAND NEW' dashing Prime Minister Kevin Rudd." Best wishes for a blessed New Year 2008 Sir; and of course, all the [wise] super charged Aussies from down under ... way across the mighty Pacific!
Regards,
Stone the crows Nick,give away the Rocky Road and Coke,,thats for girls,
real aussie men have meat pies with tomato sauce and a few beers(manly 4X
Gold)anyway congrats on the engagement
'Surely he (Rudd) will find it more difficult to be a control freak prime minister than a control freak candidate.' Nah, we don't mind a bit of the lash as long as the master doesn't think s/he is better because they carry the whip. I haven't seen any evidence that Kevin 07 has a superior side. And, may I give an endorsement for Ozzie shielas? They're beaut. Great mates and ardvarkers. I found I had to marry twice. And, I'm not a great galah. A minor galah maybe, but not a great galah.
Watching and assimilating all that is happening in Australia, the new pattern is symbolic of changes being made from bottom up. Normally that is the usual status quo. However in this instance, it looks like the right format at least for the British Monarchy and a real thump in the face of George W. Bush.
Perhaps Australia's luck will turn around on the weather front as well, with the end of drought, bountiful harvest and prosperity for all. The demise of Howard the coward, his perilous following the likes of George W. Bush, the fraud war on Iraq is no doubt the reason for changes in Australia.
Hopefully Australia is not tied in with the economical mess that the George W. Bush incompetent MBA Presidency has created in this country.
Congratulations for the Aussie to get the ball rolling. Hopefully, the rest of the world will follow.
The turnaround in Labor's fortunes is interesting. In 1997 Bob Carr's NSW Government was the only Labor Government out of 9. Since then all the Coalition Governments have fallen - in fact all 8 State and Territory Labor Governments have been re-elected since the Coalition's last Federal win in 2004.
For about a year in 1969-1970 all the then 7 Governments were non-Labor (ACT and NT did not then have self-government). Of course this did not last - South Australia elected a Labor Government in May 1970.
Years ago Friends of mine were amzazed at how many well-known politicians there were in the news because of all the State Premiers and Opposition Leaders in addition to the Federal ones. I think generally this Federal system helps the side out of office nationally as their side still has a Government voice in a Premier or two - how the Liberals will handle the current situation will be fascinating.
The next election is the ACT in Oct 2008, and then WA early 2009.
I always felt that in the end John Howard would end up doing more damage to the Liberal Party and the Coalition than he would do long term to the ALP.
another top blog Nick.
I think you are matching insights with some of the more seasoned Australian and SMH journo's.
Nick,
Nice blog. Good to get some perspectives on the election from far-away Uruguay. Sure seems like a move in the right direction for Oz.
Good to see that Kev has 'hit the ground running', and is not about to allow his team off early for Chrissie holidays to bask in their victory! Straight to work!! Good stuff...
A homesick Aussie... Yambuldai
Enjoyed reading this Nick. Thanks.
Are you by any chance the Nick Bryant, one of my long-lost bestest friends from Moor Hall Primary School (mid 1970s), left to go to Bristol if I remember rightly?
This election was a particularly special one because for the first time the common person in the street could get their point of view across to a wider audience via blogs and chat sites. Aussies now outnumber, on a percentage base, most countries when it comes to computers and mobile phones, phones that the younger generation use for texting to blog sites.
Prior to this the only outlet was Letters to Editors of various media outlets, and those were usually politically edited (I sent 17 letters to the ´óÏó´«Ã½ concerning our election and none of them were published).
The hype by the Libs usually used to control the swinging voter was countered by actual people in the street putting their own personal stories under Howard's destructive IR laws. Even treasury personnel, anonymously of course, let slip information via blog sites that we now know showed the Libs were running our economy into the red big time.
I warn editors of the mainstream media, start printing what people have to say, irrespective of your own politics, or you, like Aussie media, will be made irrelevant.