Right Royal mess
The battle to make the biggest ever takeover of a bank is suddenly wide open again, thanks to a decision in a Dutch court.
That matters in the UK, because the contest is between Barclays and a consortium led by Royal Bank of Scotland, both of which want to own ABN of the Netherlands.
Barclays looked to have the advantage, having agreed a deal with ABN's management.
It also helped Barclays' cause that ABN reached an agreement to sell its US business, Lasalle, to Bank of America. The reason the sale mattered is that Royal Bank of Scotland badly wants to own Lasalle.
Well today, a Dutch judge said ABN had no business selling Lasalle to Bank of America without getting permission from its own shareholders.
That's a huge blow to the credibility of ABN's management. And it’s a famous victory for Dutch shareholders, which will reverberate through the boardrooms of the Netherlands – where directors of companies haven’t always pursued the interests of their shareholders as zealously as they might.
It also puts Royal Bank firmly back in the game to buy ABN. Except for one lethal possible consequence.
Bank of America may now sue ABN for tens of billions of dollars for reneging on the deal. And that would make ABN rather less attractive to both RBS and Barclays.
As a banker said to me this afternoon, this battle is a long way from being over, and it's going to be bloody.
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Being somewhat close to this particular issue, but not so close for it to directly influence my career, I have to say that whilst being somewhat farcical, it's very entertaining.
ABN Amro are now swinging between being the "hot potato" and the ultimate prize.
The saga continues...
The court is right to halt the proceeding as ABN fails to take shareholders in the confidence for American arm, is it not kind of scam, where top management from Barclays and Amro tried to get together to make this deal work? overall desperation to get hold of dutch banks shows the banking industry is heading to by far anticipated consolidation.
Having a potential multi-billion lawsuit looming over your heads from BofA for reneging on a deal, is an interesting variation of a Poison Pill defence. Agreeing to sell a major piece of the family silver without at least getting the OK from your major shareholders is asking for trouble.
A fascinating story - and the ABN board deserve to be sacked. However, it is likely that whichever shareholders win it will be a large set of employees that lose; whoever they work for and wherever in the world.
Whilst it would be nice to have an English bank in the top 5 in the world (and no-one be fooled about an NL HQ - in name only it would be run from London if Barclays win) don't count out Fred Goodwin too early. Goodwin vs Varley my money is on the former' he won NatWest what has Varley done? Bank of America could buy Barclays if their bid fails too.
This is not over for a long time yet/
In short Bank Of America are going to get in on the act in a big way and ABN will have no choice....watch that space and share price movement over the next few weeks.