BP: One last push to salvage Rosneft deal
Everyone is reading the last rites over BP's attempt to swap shares with Russia's largest energy company, Rosneft.
But my sense is that the British oil giant will have one last go at trying to salvage something.
I expect that within the next few hours BP will make a formal request to Rosneft to extend the deadline of midnight tomorrow (UK time) for the deal to be done.
BP would like an extension of a couple of weeks or more - to give it the time to prepare its case for an independent tribunal in Stockholm on why the share swap with Rosneft should be permitted.
BP wants to deepen its business relationship with Rosneft by increasing its stake in Russia's biggest energy company from 1% to 10%, while Rosneft would take a 5% holding in BP.
It may seem odd that BP has not yet made the request to Rosneft for a deadline extension. But there was little point while it was continuing to negotiate with the objectors to the deal, the oligarchs behind AAR, which is the joint owner with BP of TNK-BP.
There is a strong possibility that BP's chairman, Carl-Henric Svanberg, will not be able to tell the company's shareholders where the deal stands at tomorrow's BP annual meeting, which starts at 11.30am.
Talks with AAR have now more-or-less collapsed.
In the latest attempt to placate AAR, BP offered to purchase its 50% holding in TNK-BP.
But a BP source said AAR put an impossibly high valuation on TNK-BP of around $70bn, which would value the oligarch's stake at more than $35bn.
BP was prepared, jointly with Rosneft, to something over $25bn for their stake, on the basis that TNK-BP is worth more than $50bn.
Another stumbling block was that AAR wanted payment to be in BP and Rosneft shares - and both companies decided that they did not want the AAR oligarchs to become substantial shareholders in their companies.
AAR sees it differently.
An executive close to the oligarchs pointed out that the proposed deal with Rosneft - which initially included an agreement to explore for oil in the Russian Arctic - was blocked by rulings given in the High Court in London and by the independent Stockholm tribunal, on the grounds that BP had violated its shareholder agreement with AAR.Ìý
An AAR source said: "It is up to BP to make a sensible proposal to get out of the mess it has created. One has not been forthcoming."
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He added: "AAR's position has always been clear - AAR wanted the entire Rosneft deal turned over to TNK, not some selected parts...They now face the consequences of their actions."
AAR is now preparing legal action against BP, two BP appointees to the TNK-BP board and the BP chief executive, Bob Dudley, alleging that they damaged the interests of TNK-BP.
Interestingly however, Stan Polovets, CEO of AAR told me tonight that "AAR is a long-term strategic investor in TNK-BP and has no plans to exit."
UPDATE 06:06 BP hopes to have heard, before this morning's annual meeting, whether Rosneft will allow an extension of the share-swap deal.
UPDATE 07:28 Rosneft has extended the deadline for the share swap with BP by a month to 16 May.
Comment number 1.
At 13th Apr 2011, prudeboy wrote:BP will be desperate to get the deal done as a hedge against being bought by CNPC, PetroChina.
Time will tell.
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Comment number 2.
At 13th Apr 2011, watriler wrote:Just how do major companies get into this situation when they have on board all the business analysts and corporate lawyers most organisations can only wish for. Can anyone demonstrate where this is headed that is in the interests of BP shareholders or is this another top management ego trip?
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Comment number 3.
At 13th Apr 2011, A Rahman wrote:BP seems to be in real mess with TNK-BP. To save BP's deal with Rosneft, I guess BP can set up an independent company and pass on Resneft deal to that company. In that case, TNK-BP will have no grounds to complain as the independent company is dealing with Rosneft. BP will have no control of this new company as much as BP has no control on TNK-BP. Every body is happy.
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Comment number 4.
At 13th Apr 2011, Freedomknight wrote:I think all this in fighting is just another symptom of the desperate struggle to grab what is left of dwindling oil resources. BP needs to have another string to its bow because it seems likely that actual resources are less than 50% of those claimed because when OPEC regulated sales to match resources the claimed resources more then doubled, this cannot be correct-so in a few years every Nation will be scrabbling for the dregs of what is left and the price might be $300 a barrel so the future big energy money is not going to be in oil-if there is technical breakthrough it might be in Fusion energy because the reason this always seems to be 30 years away looks to be lack of investment rather than a lack of technical feasibility-more was spent on the BP oil spill than Fusion research worldwide.
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Comment number 5.
At 13th Apr 2011, Jannex wrote:'British oil giant'? Sorry, I'm puzzled. Haven't we been told over and over that President Obama is wrong to call it 'British' Petroleum as it no longer is British (at least in any major sense). Please correct me if I'm wrong as I genuinely would like to know the truth of the situation.
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Comment number 6.
At 13th Apr 2011, OutsideLookingIn wrote:Assuming of course that ´óÏó´«Ã½ content is for consumption by the masses, here we are treated to theory, supposition, pompous and pathetic corporate posturing over the manipulation of what is perceived as wealth and which has no relation to real life and its intrinsic values..
What a pointless article.
All you readers and writers going to work tomorrow in your suits and spending your valuable time scanning screens and spreadsheets tracking money sequences... one day, not now, you'll realize what a pointless existence you have led.
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Comment number 7.
At 14th Apr 2011, jer wrote:@ TheCynicalSasquatch. This is the business section. Perhaps you should be reading something else?
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Comment number 8.
At 14th Apr 2011, MassMediocrity wrote:'....the British oil giant...'
As with #5 Jannex, i thought BP was 51% American controlled with an American CEO these days? do correct me if i'm wrong.
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Comment number 9.
At 14th Apr 2011, Carrie wrote:BP haven't been British for almost as long as I can remember. They dropped the "British" part of their name before I left Primary school and I'm now approaching my 30th birthday. That's approximately 20 years ago.
Very sloppy to call it a British company when Britain probably own diddly about it.
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Comment number 10.
At 14th Apr 2011, Up2snuff wrote:re #7
Business done without spiritual values risks doing more harm than good. A life spent chasing the last possible cent from a dollar's earnings has to be set against what tens, hundreds and thousands of dollars cannot possibly buy.
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Comment number 11.
At 14th Apr 2011, AqualungCumbria wrote:@9 the latest breakdown i could find for BP owners is UK 44....US 38....RoW 18 make of that what you will.
my question about this and any dealings with Russia are , what do the Russian people think about this, what are they getting out of this or any other deal ?? who are these oligarchs and what have they done to deserve to be in a position of owning the bargaining rights for the Russian fuel supplies.
IMO any dealings with Russia will always end badly, and we have been stupid to put such a reliance on them for our energy sources....
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Comment number 12.
At 14th Apr 2011, Lindsay_from_Hendon wrote:8. At 08:45am 14th Apr 2011, Alastair wrote:
As with #5 Jannex, i thought BP was 51% American controlled with an American CEO these days? do correct me if i'm wrong.
- Well it is incorporated in England & Wales so that makes it a British company. Who owns it and who works for doesn't change this. My house is in Switzerland and so is a Swiss house - it doesn't suddenly become a British house.
Back to BP business talk. It is obviously disappointing that a company like BP keeps making gaffs and unfortunately this is having a negative impact on shareholders' returns. This should be priced in and we shouldn't forget that Russia still has marvellous resources which BP can exploit.
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Comment number 13.
At 14th Apr 2011, Lindsay_from_Hendon wrote:6. At 23:49pm 13th Apr 2011, TheCynicalSasquatch wrote:
All you readers and writers going to work tomorrow in your suits and spending your valuable time scanning screens and spreadsheets tracking money sequences... one day, not now, you'll realize what a pointless existence you have led.
- Still not found a job eh?
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Comment number 14.
At 14th Apr 2011, EazilyGrizly wrote:Is BP exploiting Russia? or is Russia exploiting BP?
Seems like the rules have changed and BP's treatment may reflect more the shift in the balance of power between the West and the emerging economies where the rules are played differently and a top lawyer may not be as much use as in the UK or US.
Therefore we should be wary of distancing ourselves from BP in that what is happening to them is a part of something bigger.
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Comment number 15.
At 14th Apr 2011, steve wrote:@6 and @10
Eh? Spiritual? Pointless existence? Mankind has come along perfectly well in the pursuit of wealth, it is often religion or some social idealism that has caused the greater problem and people involved in those pursuits should be the ones to hang their heads in shame. To spout some pious nonsense about a pointless existense or indeed spiritual values is nothing more than mumbo jumbo. Pour yourselves another cup of nettle tea and press your best hairshirt - this is a forum for business news and views - get thee off to the whatsmyfavouritereligion blog or some such.
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Comment number 16.
At 14th Apr 2011, EdenFisher wrote:@sacallaghan
Oh dear, methinks the gentleman/gentlewoman doth protest to much. (I'm betting gentleman)
the others are right, if you are 'spending your valuable time scanning screens and spreadsheets tracking money sequences...' then your life is pointless. Just as pointless as if you spent it in prayer, in fact there are some similarities between the worship of numbers on screens and other imaginary and invisible divinities. Although to be fair to the other writers I think they are referring more to the spiritual joys of friends, families, relationships, landscapes and similar more worldly pleasures.
But leaving matters spiritual to one side for a moment, that you can say 'Mankind has come along perfectly well in the pursuit of wealth' during the current and ongoing financial crisis, is inclined to take one's breath away. You are clearly as detached from reality in your as say a monk in the other world.
Given your comments, I doubt that you are amenable to advice but here goes anyway. Get your self some practical skills and tools around the non-negotiable parts of life such as food, shelter and warmth because you are going to need them soon.
In case you wondered, I spent many years working in world of 'scanning screens and spreadsheets tracking money sequences' so I do know what I'm talking about.
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Comment number 17.
At 14th Apr 2011, DiogenesinLondon wrote:"All you readers and writers going to work tomorrow in your suits and spending your valuable time scanning screens and spreadsheets tracking money sequences... one day, not now, you'll realize what a pointless existence you have led"
Why do you define the value of existence through work? Working with spreadsheets allows me to provide a home for, and spend time with, my family and friends and generally enjoy my existence - it does not qualify it!
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Comment number 18.
At 14th Apr 2011, ichabod wrote:Eric Daniels closed a deal with HBOS which virtually destroyed Lloyds Bank and he WOULD have got a bonus escept that he waived it. At BP the Russia strategy is a mess, safety was compromised in the Gulf Oil spill and the bill runs into billions and the BP board award themselves bonuses. How useless and incompetent do board members have to be before they do not earn a bonus? Its an appalling gravy train of the self interested patting each other on the back and getting each other onto their remuneration committees. It is not in the interests of genuine shareholders - except that the big institutional shareholders are so often part of the 'in' group. I'm tired of hearing how thay have to 'pay to get the best people'. We dont want the best. We want ordinary - someone off the street with a bit of commom sense would do me.
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Comment number 19.
At 14th Apr 2011, steve wrote:@16
Oh dear, another small thinker, look at the much bigger picture rather than the current blip; and take off your doom-mongering hat - as one door closes (or even slams shut) others open up. The glass is still half full for most of us. And fyi - I'm very much involved in the reality of the situation.
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Comment number 20.
At 14th Apr 2011, EdenFisher wrote:The quality and quantity of comment today is sadly lacking. I have no intention of engaging in a slanging match with anyone, especially anyone who thinks that the current market conditions are a blip. The depth of foolishness here is beyond comprehension, hopefully you have no offspring. They will not remember you well.
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